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[大陆] 武汉病毒或中共病毒?

发表于 1/22/2020 19:36:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
  • The Wuhan coronavirus has killed 17 people and infected more than 540. Here's everything we know about the outbreak.
  • A coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China has killed 17 people and infected more than 540.
  • The virus has spread to at least six other countries.
  • On Wednesday, local authorities announced that the entire city of Wuhan will be quarantined, with all transportation halted.
  • The virus can pass from human to human, and experts are are fighting to understand it and stop it from spreading further.
  • The death toll of a coronavirus outbreak that started in China is rising.
    Of  more than 540 people who've been infected, 17 have died. The virus, which originated in the city of Wuhan, has spread to five other countries: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US.
    The virus' scientific name is 2019-nCoV, and it can be passed from human to human. Authorities are fighting to stop it from spreading further as millions begin to travel for the upcoming Chinese New Year.
    The disease is part of the larger coronavirus family, which typically infect the nose, throat, or sinuses. This one has pneumonia-like symptoms.
    Here's everything we know:
  • This virus' pneumonia-like symptoms include fever and difficulty breathing.

    Samantha Lee/Business Insider
    According to the Centers for Disease Control, a person could be at risk if they have:
    • Fever and symptoms of lower respiratory illness, such as coughing or difficulty breathing, after traveling to Wuhan or having close contact with someone who was ill and is now under investigation for the virus in the past two weeks.
    • Fever or symptoms of lower respiratory illness after having close contact in the past two weeks with someone who's been confirmed to have the virus.
    • "The people who are likely to die first will have other illnesses," Adrian Hyzler, the chief medical officer at Healix International, which offers risk-management solutions for global travelers, told Business Insider. "But as it spreads, it'll pick up more people like flu does."
    • Many corona viruses are not very serious, and only threaten people with weakened immune systems. But a few, like SARS, are deadly.
    • "An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS," Eric Toner, a senior scientist at Johns Hopkins University, told Business Insider.

      Shayanne Gal/Business Insider
      "On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting," Toner added.
      Scientists are still learning about the virus' incubation period — the time that passes between when a patient gets infected and when they start displaying symptoms. That's a period people can be contagious without realizing they're sick.
      "The information that has been coming out of China so far is incomplete," Toner said. "There's an awful lot we don't yet know."

    Health officials believe the coronavirus outbreak originated in a seafood market in Wuhan.

  • They initially said the virus could only spread from animals to humans.But on January 20, Chinese officials confirmed that the virus can be transferred from person to person as well.
    "Now we can say it is certain that it is a human-to-human transmission phenomenon," Zhong Nanshan, the scientist the Chinese government appointed to lead the effort to battle the disease, said.

  • Wuhan's local disease-control authority announced on Wednesday that it would effectively quarantine the entire city by shutting down all transportation.
  • All of the city's public transportation — including buses, metros, ferries, and train — will be temporarily shut down as of 10 a.m. local time on January 23. Trains and airplanes coming in and out of the city that have also been halted.
    Wuhan's 11 million residents have been told not to leave the city, barring special circumstances.

    The virus has spread to five other countries and to many other parts of China, including Beijing, Guangdong province, Zhejiang province, Tianjin, and Shanghai.

  • Outside of China, one case has been recorded in the US, one South Korea, one in Japan, one in Taiwan, and four in Thailand . All of those patients were either from Wuhan or had recently visited the city.
  • Other places, like Singapore, have reported suspected cases.
  • He estimated that a single person with the virus could infect 10, 20, or 30 people.

  • The true number infected people is probably higher than the total that Chinese authorities have identified there.
  • At the point in time when China said just 45 people had been infected, academics from Imperial College London thought the true number of infected people might have been closer to 1,723.

    Chinese officials have also warned that the virus is mutating, which could make it harder to control and treat.

  • Gao Fu, the director-general of China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Wednesday that the virus was adapting and changing — making it harder to fight.

Five US airports — New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport, San Francisco International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, and Chicago O'Hare International Airport — are beginning to screen passengers for the virus.
Airports in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea are also screening passengers for fever.

Chinese state media reported that transport hubs in Wuhan were supplied with infrared thermometers to try to catch people who might have been infected. But those efforts started January 14 so likely missed some sick people.

The holiday starts this weekend, and experts worry the surge in travel could boost the virus' spread.
"This couldn't have happened at a worse time for Wuhan," Hyzler said.

"Our commission will step up our guard during the Spring Festival," China's National Health Commission said on Sunday.

The commission also vowed to "pay close attention to the development and change of the epidemic, and direct the implementation of prevention and control measures."

The commission added that the virus is "still preventable and controllable."

The organization is still deciding whether to declare the coronavirus "a public-health emergency of international concern," as it has in the past with diseases like swine flu and Ebola.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday that keeping people alive is the "top priority" and the virus' spread "should be resolutely contained."

 楼主| 发表于 1/22/2020 19:39:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 1/22/2020 19:46 编辑

Here Are The Symptoms of The Wuhan Coronavirus, According to a New CDC Warning

22 JAN 2020

The deadly Wuhan coronavirus, officially called 2019-nCoV, has killed 17 people and infected at least 554 others in China as of Wednesday. The US confirmed its first case, a man in his 30s in Washington state who had visited China, on Tuesday.

Scientists are still scrambling to fully understand the virus, which they confirmed this week could be passed from human to human.
The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released guidance for healthcare professionals on the symptoms of the virus.
(Ruobing Su/Business Insider)
What to look out for
According to the CDC, a person could be at risk if they have:
  • Fever and symptoms of lower respiratory illness, such as coughing or difficulty breathing, after travelling to Wuhan or having close contact with someone who was ill and is now under investigation for the virus in the past two weeks.
  • Fever or symptoms of lower respiratory illness after having close contact in the past two weeks with someone who's been confirmed to have the virus.
The CDC defined "close contact" as being within about 6 feet (1.8 m) "or within the room or care area" of a person with the coronavirus for a prolonged period without appropriate protective clothing, or "having direct contact with infectious secretions" of a person with the virus without protective clothing.

The agency said close contact could include "caring for, living with, visiting, or sharing a health care waiting area or room" with a person with the virus.
The CDC said that if you have travelled to Wuhan recently and feel any of these symptoms, you should "seek medical care right away," call ahead to tell your doctor about your travel and symptoms, and avoid contact with other people.
People in the US who meet these criteria should be evaluated for the virus and their case reported to their state health department, it added.
Who is at most risk?
Coronaviruses like 2019-nCoV are particularly dangerous for people who have weaker immune systems, like young children and older adults.
There are no vaccines to protect people from contracting a coronavirus. Pets are also at risk of catching coronaviruses, which can lead to disease and even death.
The source of the Wuhan virus outbreak was identified as a market that sold seafood and live animals like wolves and civet cats. The Chinese government closed the market on January 1.

How to protect yourself
Here are the CDC's and other healthcare experts' suggestions for how to protect yourself from the virus while travelling:
  • Try to avoid contact with people who display symptoms similar to those of pneumonia or the common cold, like coughing or a runny nose.
  • Don't touch your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
  • Wash your hands frequently with soap and water, and scrub for at least 20 seconds.
  • Use alcohol-based hand sanitizer when possible.
  • Avoid animals and animal markets.
The World Health Organisation is set to hold an emergency meeting on Wednesday on whether to declare the outbreak a global health emergency.
 楼主| 发表于 1/22/2020 19:48:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 1/22/2020 19:49 编辑

Democratic House managers give opening arguments in Senate impeachment trial

Snakes could be the source of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak

By Haitao Guo, Guangxiang "George" Luo and Shou-Jiang Gao, The Conversation

Updated 7:26 PM ET, Wed January 22, 2020
Gupta: Here's what's keeping health officials up at night
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Gupta: Here's what's keeping health officials up at night 02:36
(CNN)Snakes -- the Chinese krait and the Chinese cobra -- may be the original source of the newly discovered coronavirus that has triggered an outbreak of a deadly infectious respiratory illness in China this winter.

Wuhan coronavirus death toll rises, as city imposes transport lackdown
Wuhan coronavirus death toll rises, as city imposes transport lackdown
The many-banded krait (Bungarus multicinctus), also known as the Taiwanese krait or the Chinese krait, is a highly venomous species of elapid snake found in much of central and southern China and Southeast Asia.
The illness was first reported in late December 2019 in Wuhan, a major city in central China, and has been rapidly spreading. Since then, sick travelers from Wuhan have infected people in China and other countries, including the United States.
Using samples of the virus isolated from patients, scientists in China have determined the genetic code of the virus and used microscopes to photograph it. The pathogen responsible for this pandemic is a new coronavirus. It's in the same family of viruses as the well-known severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which have killed hundreds of people in the past 17 years. The World Health Organization (WHO) has named the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
We are virologists and journal editors and are closely following this outbreak because there are many questions that need to be answered to curb the spread of this public health threat.
What is a coronavirus?
The name of coronavirus comes from its shape, which resembles a crown or solar corona when imaged using an electron microscope.
A visual guide to the Wuhan coronavirus
A visual guide to the Wuhan coronavirus
The electron microscopic image, reveals the crown shape structural details for which the coronavirus was named. This image is of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)
Coronavirus is transmitted through the air and primarily infects the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract of mammals and birds. Though most of the members of the coronavirus family only cause mild flu-like symptoms during infection, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV can infect both upper and lower airways and cause severe respiratory illness and other complications in humans.
This new 2019-nCoV causes similar symptoms to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. People infected with these coronaviruses suffer a severe inflammatory response.
Unfortunately, there is no approved vaccine or antiviral treatment available for coronavirus infection. A better understanding of the life cycle of 2019-nCoV, including the source of the virus, how it is transmitted and how it replicates are needed to both prevent and treat the disease.
Read: What exactly is a coronavirus?
Zoonotic transmission
Both SARS and MERS are classified as zoonotic viral diseases, meaning the first patients who were infected acquired these viruses directly from animals. This was possible because while in the animal host, the virus had acquired a series of genetic mutations that allowed it to infect and multiply inside humans.
First US case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed by CDC
First US case of Wuhan coronavirus confirmed by CDC
Now these viruses can be transmitted from person to person. Field studies have revealed that the original source of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is the bat, and that the masked palm civets (a mammal native to Asia and Africa) and camels, respectively, served as intermediate hosts between bats and humans.
In the case of this 2019 coronavirus outbreak, reports state that most of the first group of patients hospitalized were workers or customers at a local seafood wholesale market which also sold processed meats and live consumable animals including poultry, donkeys, sheep, pigs, camels, foxes, badgers, bamboo rats, hedgehogs and reptiles. However, since no one has ever reported finding a coronavirus infecting aquatic animals, it is plausible that the coronavirus may have originated from other animals sold in that market.
Life inside ground zero of Wuhan coronavirus outbreak
Life inside ground zero of Wuhan coronavirus outbreak
The hypothesis that the 2019-nCoV jumped from an animal at the market is strongly supported by a new publication in the Journal of Medical Virology. The scientists conducted an analysis and compared the genetic sequences of 2019-nCoV and all other known coronaviruses.
The study of the genetic code of 2019-nCoV reveals that the new virus is most closely related to two bat SARS-like coronavirus samples from China, initially suggesting that, like SARS and MERS, the bat might also be the origin of 2019-nCoV. The authors further found that the DNA coding sequence of 2019-nCoV spike protein, which forms the "crown" of the virus particle that recognizes the receptor on a host cell, indicates that the bat virus might have mutated before infecting people.
How influenza jumped from animals to humans
But when the researchers performed a more detailed bioinformatics analysis of the sequence of 2019-nCoV, it suggests that this coronavirus might come from snakes.
The Wuhan Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, where the coronavirus outbreak is believed to have started, is now closed.
From bats to snakes
The researchers used an analysis of the protein codes favored by the new coronavirus and compared it to the protein codes from coronaviruses found in different animal hosts, like birds, snakes, marmots, hedgehogs, manis, bats and humans. Surprisingly, they found that the protein codes in the 2019-nCoV are most similar to those used in snakes.
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Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta every Tuesday from the CNN Health team.

Snakes often hunt for bats in wild. Reports indicate that snakes were sold in the local seafood market in Wuhan, raising the possibility that the 2019-nCoV might have jumped from the host species -- bats -- to snakes and then to humans at the beginning of this coronavirus outbreak. However, how the virus could adapt to both the cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts remains a mystery.
The authors of the report and other researchers must verify the origin of the virus through laboratory experiments. Searching for the 2019-nCoV sequence in snakes would be the first thing to do. However, since the outbreak, the seafood market has been disinfected and shut down, which makes it challenging to trace the new virus' source animal.
3 reasons the US is not ready for a pandemic
Sampling DNA from animals sold at the market and from wild snakes and bats is needed to confirm the origin of the virus. Nonetheless, the reported findings will also provide insights for developing prevention and treatment protocols.
The 2019-nCoV outbreak is another reminder that people should limit the consumption of wild animals to prevent zoonotic infections.
The Conversation
Copyright 2019 The Conversation. Some rights reserved.
 楼主| 发表于 1/23/2020 19:23:04 | 显示全部楼层
What is the coronavirus and how worried should we be?

Experts fear latest strain of virus may spread across world
Thu 23 Jan 2020 20.00

What is the virus causing illness in Wuhan?
It is a novel coronavirus – that is to say, a member of the coronavirus family that has never been encountered before. Like other coronaviruses, it has come from animals. Many of those infected either worked or frequently shopped in the Huanan seafood wholesale market in the centre of the Chinese city, which also sold live and newly slaughtered animals. New and troubling viruses usually originate in animal hosts. Ebola and flu are examples.
What other coronaviruses have there been?
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (Mers) are both caused by coronaviruses that came from animals. Although Mers is believed to be transmitted to humans from dromedaries, the original hosts for both coronaviruses were probably bats. There are suspicions now that the new coronavirus may have originated in bats or snakes, and possibly then was transmitted to humans via an intermediary species. The first cases of Sars were in China in late 2002. The authorities played them down and were subsequently much criticised because the virus spread virtually unchecked to 37 countries, causing global panic, infecting more than 8,000 people and killing more than 750. Mers appears to be less easily passed from human to human, but has greater lethality, killing 35% of about 2,500 people who have been infected.
What are the symptoms caused by the Wuhan coronavirus?
The virus causes pneumonia. Those who have fallen ill are reported to suffer coughs, fever and breathing difficulties. In severe cases there can be organ failure. As this is viral pneumonia, antibiotics are of no use. The antiviral drugs we have against flu will not work. If people are admitted to hospital, they may get support for their lungs and other organs as well as fluids. Recovery will depend on the strength of their immune system. Many of those who have died are known to have been already in poor health.
Is the virus being transmitted from one person to another?[backcolor=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1)]
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Read more

Human to human transmission has been confirmed by China’s national health commission. As of 23 January the Chinese authorities had acknowledged 517 cases and17 deaths. In the past week, the number of confirmed infections has more than tripled and cases have been found in 13 provinces, as well as the municipalities Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Tianjin. The virus has also been confirmed outside China, in the US, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. There have not been any confirmed cases in the UK at present, but there is definitely potential for cases to emerge. The actual number to have contracted the virus could be far higher as people with mild symptoms may not have been detected. Modelling by WHO experts at Imperial College London suggests there could be 4,000 cases, with uncertainty putting the margins between 1,000 and 9,700.
How worried are the experts?
There were fears that the coronavirus might spread more widely during the week-long lunar new year holidays, which start on 24 January, when millions of Chinese travel home to celebrate, but the festivities have largely been cancelled and Wuhan and two other Chinese cities are in lockdown. At the moment, it appears that people in poor health are at greatest risk, as is always the case with flu. A key concern is the range of severity of symptoms – some people appear to suffer only mild illness while others are becoming severely ill. This makes it more difficult to establish the true numbers infected and the extent of transmission between people. But the authorities will be keen to stop the spread and will be anxious that the virus could become more potent than it so far appears.
Should we panic?
No. The spread of the virus outside China is worrying but not an unexpected development. It increases the likelihood that the World Health Organization will declare the outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on Thursday evening. The key concerns are how transmissible this new coronavirus is between people and what proportion become severely ill and end up in hospital. Often viruses that spread easily tend to have a milder impact.
Healthcare workers could be at risk if they unexpectedly came across someone with respiratory symptoms who had travelled to an affected region. Generally, the coronavirus appears to be hitting older people hardest, with few cases in children.

 楼主| 发表于 1/23/2020 19:27:23 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 1/23/2020 19:28 编辑

Four other nearby cities — Huanggang, Ezhou, Chibi, and Zhijiang — were placed under a transportation lockdown on Thursday. Authorities have also announced an impending quarantine order for Xianning, which will go into effect at 10 a.m. local time Friday, BNO News reported.

Quarantining 23 million people
All told, these six quarantines place about 23 million people under lockdown.
Officials in Huanggang have ordered cinemas and cafes to close and told citizens not leave the city unless there are special circumstances, Reuters reported. The city's long-distance buses and trains were halted. The nearby city of Ezhou, too, has closed its train stations.
In Chibi and Zhijiang, two smaller cities, buses are being halted.

 楼主| 发表于 1/23/2020 19:52:05 | 显示全部楼层
The Outbreak Basics
Chinese authorities have so far said that almost 600 people have become infected and 17 people have died from the newly identified disease since it was first identified on Dec. 31. The outbreak started in the city of Wuhan and has so far spread to seven other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam and theU.S. Disease modeling experts from Imperial College, London suggest China’s case numbers are conservative, issuing a report on Wednesday stating that 4,000 people could currently be infected.

What Is A Coronavirus?
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that cause infections in the respiratory system. There are seven known coronaviruses, including the newly identified  2019-nCoV. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was the coronavirus behind a deadly outbreak from 2002 to 2003, which infected  8,098 people and killed 774. MERS (also called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), first identified in 2012, is another recent and ongoing coronavirus outbreak, with cases reported as recently as this week. Of the 2,494 cases and 858 deaths associated with MERS, most occurred  in the Arabian Peninsula. The Wuhan coronavirus is different from these diseases, however, and it has never been seen in people before.
How Deadly Is This Disease?
The short answer is, we don’t know. If you look at the number of people reported to be infected (approximately 600, though this number is sure to rise) and compare to the number of deaths (17), you can calculate a number called the case fatality rate, which describes how deadly a disease is. Right now, the case fatality rate is a little under 3%. That means that 3% of people who become infected with the new coronavirus die. But this number is almost meaningless right now, since we don’t really know yet how many people are infected and how many deaths will occur in the coming weeks. One thing we do know: like many other illnesses, 2019-nCoV patients are more likely to die if they are old or suffer from other diseases.
How Did The Outbreak Start?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that initial cases of 2019-nCoV are linked to the Hua Nan Seafood Market in Wuhan. The outbreak likely started from a “spillover” incident when the virus was passed from animal to human. These spillovers happen through close human-to-animal contact, especially in markets where live and dead animals are sold for food. Ebola likely spilled over to humans from bats and nonhuman primates, MERS spilled over to humans from camels, and SARS spilled over from palm civets, small mammals considered a delicacy in China. The Wuhan market was shut down on Jan.1 to limit the spread of 2019-nCoV, but more cases have since been identified, meaning the virus can also be spread from person-to-person.
So Why Have I Been Hearing About Snakes?
In an academic article published on Wednesday, Chinese researchers reported genetic similarities between 2019-nCoV and a coronavirus found in snakes. Notably, this article is a preprint and hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed or vetted in any way. What’s more, other scientists are skeptical on whether a virus can jump between cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts. So the snake theory is just that: a theory.
How Does The Disease Spread? Should I Start Wearing A Mask?
Scientists are still trying to figure this out. It’s not clear how the virus is transmitted, or how easily it can move from person-to-person. We do know that it moves from person (not just animal to person) because at least 15 health workersin Wuhan caring for sick patients have also become sick, and some of the infected never visited the seafood market. Coronaviruses typically spread through the air when a person sneezes or coughs. If this disease works the same way, face masks might offer some protection. The type of mask matters, though. Face masks with respiratory valves are more effectivethan regular paper surgical masks, though the latter is better than nothing. Since the droplets from coughs and sneezes tend to end up on surfaces other people touch, frequent hand washing is also a good idea.
I Live In North America, Should I Be Worried?
According to the CDC, the  immediate health risk to the general American public “is considered low at this time.” Only one case of 2019-nCoV in the U.S. has been reported, a Washington man with mild pneumonia who the state’s department of health says is recovering well. The biggest risk for infection is people living in or traveling around Wuhan, China.
I Was Also Recently In China - Are There Symptoms I Should Look Out For?
The CDC advises doctors to look out for patients  who recently traveled to or near Wuhan and have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing,  symptoms that are similar to SARS and MERS. If you notice that these are also similar to the regular symptoms of pneumonia, you’re right. Cases of 2019-CoV are only confirmed at CDC labs.
A Major Holiday Is Coming Up In China - Could This Impact The Outbreak?
Saturday, January 25, will see Lunar New Year celebrations across China. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to travel to and from China in the coming days, which experts worry could accelerate the outbreak.
How Is This Outbreak Impacting The Global Economy?
In a memo to clients, Goldman Sachs predicted that reduced travel could result in a drop in oil prices, especially jet fuel. This week also marked the biggest fall in Chinese stocks in the past five months. Locally, Wuhan is losing revenue as qualifying matches for the 2020 Olympics have been moved out of the city. The Chinese film industry is also taking a hit, as seven films set to premier over the Lunar New Year Weekend were pulled from the box office to prevent large crowds.
What Steps Are Governments And Healthcare Companies Taking Next To Contain The Outbreak?
Right now, there is no specific treatment for 2019-nCoV, and no vaccine.
On Thursday, all travel to and from Wuhan shut down, including flights and passenger train services.Two other Chinese cities, Huanggang and Ezhou, are also on lockdown. In the U.S., all passengers arriving from Wuhan will be routed through international airports in five cities (Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago and Atlanta) and screened for disease.
Moderna, a manufacturer of mRNA vaccines, announced on Thursday that it received a grant of an undisclosed amount from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) to begin developing a vaccine for the new virus.
Check back for updates as the situation progresses.

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Leah Rosenbaum

 楼主| 发表于 1/23/2020 19:58:12 | 显示全部楼层
Is this a deadly disease? How fast is it spreading?
It’s hard to tell, because the information being released by the Chinese government is questionable. Within China, the virus is confirmed to have reached major metropolises such as Beijing and Shanghai, while it’s also traveled as far south as Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Outside of China, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea have all recorded cases—all Chinese travelers. While it was initially claimed to be only the result of animal-to-human transmission, doctors have just confirmed human-to-human transmission; 14 health care workers have also been reported as infected.
The virus causes pneumonia, resulting in difficulty breathing. As of Wednesday afternoon EST, the number of reported dead has risen to 17, mostly older men with pre-existing conditions. The majority of victims, though, had only mild symptoms, and some have already been discharged. Many others, however, remain in serious or critical condition.
It’s always an open question how bad a new virus could get. Modern disease control methods have improved dramatically since the 1918-19 influenza outbreak killed more people than World War I—and the global population is healthier and more resistant. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the odds of the virus reaching the country are low. Right now, the main worries are in China itself—especially the government’s handling of the cases.
Even before the quarantine, there were  numerous unconfirmed posts and stories online claiming Wuhan hospitals are overflowing with victims or showing staff in full protective gear. Those may just be rumors, but the government numbers are definitely suspicious, especially the sudden jump over the weekend. For days authorities kept the figure of infected people at 41; then, it suddenly jumped up this weekend, eventually reaching 218. As of Wednesday afternoon, the number is now over 500. Foreign doctors estimated last week the number might already be as high as 1,700 cases, using models of other outbreaks. Admitting the existence of more cases seems to have been prompted, in part, by public skepticism that the virus could have reached Thailand and Japan but inside China somehow have been confined to just Wuhan.

 楼主| 发表于 1/24/2020 14:37:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 1/24/2020 14:38 编辑

  • China spent the crucial first days of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak arresting people who posted about it online and threatening journalists
  • Ashley Collman

  • In the early days of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Chinese officials arrested citizens they accused of spreading rumors about the illness online.
  • Journalists have also reported being detained and threatened by Chinese authorities while covering the outbreak.
  • Experts are now faulting the Chinese government for its harsh crackdown on the flow of information about the virus.

As the Wuhan coronavirus death toll rose to at least 18 on Thursday, the Chinese government is facing questions over its vice grip on the flow of information in the early days of the outbreak. (It is alleged by online messages that the true figure of death more than 4000, and more than 90000 being infected).
In early January, the Wuhan police said they had arrested eight people accused of spreading "rumors" about what was then a mysterious pneumonia causing serious complications in patients.
When the coronavirus made national headlines, more and more journalists began to describe being detained or threatened with arrest by Chinese authorities while reporting on the outbreak.
The Wuhan outbreak immediately harked back to the SARS epidemic in the early 2000s, which the Chinese government tried to cover up. The two viruses are in the same family, which also includes the common cold and pneumonia, but Wuhan so far is much milder than SARS.
While the government was almost immediately forthcoming with the international community about this outbreak, its actions in suppressing information at home have left some experts concerned that it made the situation worse than it might have been.
Where did it come from?
Coronaviruses originate in animals — like camels, civets and bats — and are usually not transmissible to humans. But occasionally a coronavirus mutates and can pass from animals to humans and then from human to human, as was the case with the SARS epidemic in the early 2000s. (SARS stands for "severe acute respiratory syndrome.") China's National Health Commission has confirmed that 15 health care workers have become infected, indicating that the virus can spread from human to human.
The first known cases in December 2019 were traced to an animal market in the Chinese city of Wuhan and are believed to have come from contact with live animals that were infected. The market has since been closed. Wuhan is a major logistics and transportation hub. It lies about 500 miles west of Shanghai and is home to more than 11 million people.
How serious is this?
This virus is "highly infectious," according to China's Bureau of Disease Prevention and Control. But the agency does not consider the disease to be as virulent as the one that caused the SARS outbreak in 2003. The risk to the general American public is "low," according to the CDC: Most cases have been found in China, and so far international spread seems limited.

 楼主| 发表于 1/24/2020 14:58:54 | 显示全部楼层
  • Did the Wuhan coronavirus come from a snake?
    Each time there is a new outbreak, experts look to animals for the culprit.

    ByChia-Yi Hou

  • The novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, has led to more than 500 cases of illness in humans.
  • Experts are working to learn more about the virus, and although not much information is currently public, it may have originated in wildlife.
  • It is customary in some cultures to consume wild animals as a source of protein, though this may expose people to pathogens like bacteria and viruses.
  • Identifying new viruses from wildlife may not necessarily prepare us for future epidemics but could inform us on pathways that viruses can enter humans.

With the entire city of Wuhan, China — with 11 million people — now being quarantined in hopes of containing the growing outbreak of coronavirus, the world watches to see how deadly and how big this particular event will get. Each time there is a new or emerging infectious disease, there’s increased interest in how it happened. How did a new virus get into humans? Where did it come from? What should be done about it?
Basic infectious disease biology would explain that as long as we are in contact with animals, wild or domestic, we are bound to pick up pathogens from them. Not every bug will lead to illness, but considering there are potentially millions of viruses and unknown numbers of bacteria and other microbes out there, eventually some of those will.
Potential sources of the new coronavirus, informally being called 2019-nCoV, are two species of snake: the Chinese krait and the Chinese cobra, according to The Conversation. Researchers in China analyzed the RNA genome of the virus and found evidence that it is a combination of a bat coronavirus and an unknown coronavirus that may be from one of the snake species. Snakes were sold in the animal and seafood market in Wuhan at the center of the outbreak, supporting this hypothesis.
The best way to pinpoint where the virus came from would be to sample the animals sold at the market for viral RNA and to sample wild bats and snakes to confirm. However, the market has been closed down and disinfected, according to the article in The Conversation, making further sampling impossible.
Viruses can mix and mutate in wild and domestic animals, especially in environments like markets where species diversity may be high and live animals are preferred to dead ones. This phenomenon is not limited to Asia either. A study of live animal markets in Minnesota suggests they may be sources for new influenza A viruses. Salmonella is a major concern in meat and poultry markets around the U.S. Researchers have been chronicling the transfer of diseases between animals and humans for a long time, and we’re still not that good at preventing it from happening or from containing it once it does.
When avian flu is a concern, large flocks of chickens are culled to prevent the spread of the disease. This is typically effective because the virus is not passed from person to person, only from bird to person. With the 2019-nCoV, there are reports that it can be transferred from person to person. Even though the original source in the market has been dealt with, quarantining and limiting travel will be the most effective ways to contain the outbreak in this case.
While it may sound drastic to keep millions of people on lockdown by shutting them out from trains and planes, it’s the simplest and most direct way to prevent the disease from spreading geographically. For people who are in Wuhan, their best hope may be to stay away from crowds, wear a mask and wash their hands often.
Experts debate about what’s the best way to prepare for a new disease that jumps over from animals to humans. Should millions get funneled into research programs to discover new pathogens and sequence viruses? How about taking samples from wildlife? Is that worth the effort and if so where and how often should that be done? Should we focus more on domestic animals like pigs and chickens?
One of the largest funded projects focused on emerging diseases was the PREDICT program from USAID that gave funding to several research institutions. The main priorities were to build wildlife disease surveillance capacity in several key countries like China and try to understand why, how and where new diseases emerge. It ran for 10 years and recently was not renewed for another five years of funding.
But even after years of research, it’s still difficult to predict what might go viral, and a lot of those questions about what to do remain unanswered and are rehashed each time a new pathogen comes up like SARS, MERS and now 2019-nCoV. Several experts wrote that although the response to 2019-nCoV has been quicker than for SARS there is still much to do in a statement published in Nature. “Virus genomes from infected people will need to be sequenced continually to understand the extent to which the virus is evolving,” write the authors.
Further laboratory tests may confirm the origin of the coronavirus is in snakes, and we may be able to know which parts of the RNA were combined with other viruses or mutated on its own. Wherever this coronavirus came from, we’ve seen something like it before and we will probably see something like it again.
For up-to-date information, check the websites of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization.
You can follow Chia-Yi Hou on Twitter.

 楼主| 发表于 1/25/2020 23:36:12 | 显示全部楼层

Virus-hit Wuhan has two laboratories linked to Chinese bio-warfare program

本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 1/25/2020 23:56 编辑

Virus-hit Wuhan has two laboratories linked to Chinese bio-warfare program
Virology institute there has China's only secure lab for studying deadly viruse

By Bill Gertz - The Washington Times - Friday, January 24, 2020

The deadly animal virus epidemic spreading globally may have originated in a Wuhan laboratory linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, according to an Israeli biological warfare expert.

Radio Free Asia this week rebroadcast a local Wuhan television report from 2015 showing China’s most advanced virus research laboratory known the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Radio Free Asia reported.

The laboratory is the only declared site in China capable of working with deadly viruses.

Dany Shoham, a former Israeli military intelligence officer who has studied Chinese bio warfare, said the institute is linked to Beijing’s covert biological weapons program.

Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese [biological weapons], at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW alignment,” Mr. Shoham told The Washington Times.

Work on biological weapons is conducted as part of a dual civilian-military research and is “definitely covert,” he said in an email.

Mr. Shoham holds a doctorate in medical microbiology. From 1970 to 1991 he was a senior analyst with Israeli military intelligence for biological and chemical warfare in the Middle East and worldwide, holding the rank of lieutenant colonel.

China in the past has denied having any offensive biological weapons. The State Department, in a report last year, said it suspects China has engaged in covert biological warfare work.

A Chinese Embassy spokesman did not return an email seeking comment.

Chinese authorities so far have said the origin of the coronavirus that has killed scores and infected hundreds in central Hubei Province is not known.

Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told state-controlled media initial signs as of Thursday indicated the virus originated from wild animals sold at a seafood market in Wuhan.

One ominous sign, said a U.S. official, is that false rumors since the outbreak began several weeks ago have begun circulating on the Chinese Internet claiming the virus is part of a U.S. conspiracy to spread germ weapons.

That could indicate China is preparing propaganda outlets to counter future charges the new virus escaped from one of Wuhan’s civilian or defense research laboratories.

The World Health Organization is calling the microbe novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. At a meeting in Geneva Thursday, the organization stopped short of declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

The virus outbreak causes pneumonia-like symptoms and prompted China to deploy military forces to Wuhan this week in a bid to halt the spread. All travel out of the city of 11 million people was halted.

The Wuhan institute has studied coronaviruses in the past, including the including the strain that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, H5N1 influenza virus, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue. Researchers at the institute also studied the germ that causes anthrax – a biological agent once developed in Russia.

Coronaviruses (particularly SARS) have been studied in the institute and are probably held therein,” he said. “SARS is included within the Chinese BW program, at large, and is dealt with in several pertinent facilities.”

It is not known if the institute’s array of coronaviruses are specifically included in biological weapons program but it is possible, he said.

Asked if the new coronavirus may have leaked, Mr. Shoham said: “In principle, outward virus infiltration might take place either as leakage or as an indoor unnoticed infection of a person that normally went out of the concerned facility. This could have been the case with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, but so far there isn’t evidence or indication for such incident.”

After researchers sequence of the genome of the new coronavirus it might be possible to determine or suggest its origin or source.

Mr. Shoham, now with the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Israel, said the virology institute is the only declared site in China known as P4 for Pathogen Level 4, a status indicating it uses the strictest safety standards to prevent the spread of the most dangerous and exotic microbes being studied.

The former Israeli military intelligence doctor also said suspicions were raised about the Wuhan Institute of Virology when a group of Chinese virologists working in Canada improperly sent samples to China of what he said were some of the deadliest viruses on earth, including the Ebola virus.

In a July article in the journal Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Mr. Shoham said the Wuhan institute was one of four Chinese laboratories engaged in some aspects of the biological weapons development.

He identified the secure Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory at the institute as engaged in research on the Ebola, Nipah, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever viruses.

The Wuhan virology institute is under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. But certain laboratories within it “have linkage with the PLA or BW-related elements within the Chinese defense establishment,” he said.

In 1993, China declared a second facility, the Wuhan Institute of Biological Products, as one of eight biological warfare research facilities covered by the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) which China joined in 1985.

The Wuhan Institute of Biological Products is a civilian facility but is linked to the Chinese defense establishment, and has been regarded to be involved in the Chinese BW program, Mr. Shoham said.

China’s vaccine against SARS is probably produced there.

“This means the SARS virus is held and propagated there, but it is not a new coronavirus, unless the wild type has been modified, which is not known and cannot be speculated at the moment,” he said.

The annual State Department report on arms treaty compliance stated last year that China engaged in activities that could support biological warfare.

“Information indicates that the People’s Republic of China engaged during the reporting period in biological activities with potential dual-use applications, which raises concerns regarding its compliance with the BWC,” the report said, adding that the United States suspects China failed to eliminate its biological warfare program as required by the treaty.

“The United States has compliance concerns with respect to Chinese military medical institutions’ toxin research and development because of the potential dual-use applications and their potential as a biological threat,” the report added.

The biosafety lab is located about 20 miles from the Hunan Seaford Market that reports from China say may have been origin point of the virus.

Rutgers University microbiologist Dr. Richard Ebright told London’s Daily Mail that “at this point there’s no reason to harbor suspicions” the lab may be linked to the virus outbreak.

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