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楼主: 郭国汀

人类历史上最恐怖最荒诞的大饥荒真相

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 楼主| 发表于 11/17/2014 23:17:23 | 显示全部楼层
目前通过官方解密的材
料可以接受的数位和结论是:至少三千万中国人饿死,而当局应当承担主要责任;
有人甚至根据这些材料推出“准确数目该是41655000人。〔23〕值得参
考的数字是:仅四川省,1960年底比1957年全省人口减少1000万。〔
24〕


大饥荒源于大跃进,而大跃进的基本指导精神乃
是以人为神,相信人定胜天。由于人的骄傲和自以为神,首先严重高估了粮食产量
。1958年底,决策者把预计粮食产量夸大为4250亿公斤(1958年12
月7日中央批转谭震林、廖鲁言报告《关于农业生产和农村人民公社的主要情况、
问题和意见》);实际上,经过后来核实的1958年全国粮食产量只有2000
亿公斤。其次,由于人的骄傲和自以为神,人为地进行大规模的工业化和城市化:
当局大量增加城镇和职工人数,职工人数1960年达到5969万人,比195
7年增加2868万人,城镇人口1960年达到13000万人,比1957年
增加3124万人。〔26〕全国农业劳动者人数由1957年的19310万人
急剧下降到1958年的15492万人,占工农劳动者的比例由93.2%下降
到77.8%(《建国三十年全国农业统计资料》第5页)。与此同时,无偿调拨
农业劳力物力。1958年秋收未完,抽调农村劳动力3000多万人搞钢铁等其
他事业。同时减少粮食播种面积。1959年全国粮食播种面积为174,034
万亩,比1958年的191420万亩下降了9.1%(《建国三十年全国农业
统计资料》第45-49页)。最后、由于人的骄傲和自以为神,在粮食短缺的情
况下实行粮食高征购政策。1959年全国粮食征购量、出口量达到建国以来最高
的674亿公斤和41.6亿公斤,即使到了严重遭灾的1960年,征购量和出
口量仍高达510.5亿公斤和26.5亿公斤,出口量与丰收的1958年相等
(《中国统计年鉴》(1983)第393、422页)……而这一切的人的骄傲
和自以为神乃基于这样的无神论信念:“过高地估计了主观意识的作用和农业生产

条件的变化,把‘人定胜天’的决心当作了现实”。〔27〕面对十灾,毛这位法
老的反应与埃及法老的反应如出一辙:1959年出现严重春旱之时,4月24日
,毛在一份批示中指示:“再接再厉,视死如归,在同地球开战中要有此种气概。

”〔28〕


23.参见:《大跃进中到底死了多少人?》,作者魏紫丹,原载议报。
24.李锐《 回忆四川“萧李廖案件”》 序言,原载《华夏文摘》增刊第三七六期。
25.China’S great famine:introductory remarks,d.Gale johnson,
the university of chicago,1999.
26.《当代中国的劳动力管理》,中国社会科学出版社1990年版,第10页
27.《“三年自然灾害”与“大跃进”——“天灾”、“人祸”关系的计量历史
考察》作者陈东林,原载《中共党史资料》2000年第4期。

28.《建国以来毛泽东文稿》第8册,中央文献出版社,第209页。

 楼主| 发表于 11/22/2014 15:11:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/22/2014 15:29 编辑

Immanuel C.Y.Hsu, The Rise of Modern China, fourth ed, (New York, London) Oxford University Press 1990,pp.652-658.

In early February 1958, the National people's Congress announced a "Great Leap Forward" movement for the next three years, calling for a 19 percent increase in steel production. Mao talked about catching up with or even surpassing the British industrail capacity in 15 years. the steel quota was raised form 6.2 mts in February 1958 to 8.5 mts in May and to 10.7 mts in August. By the fall of 1958, some 600,000 backyard furnaces had sprung up all over the country (Hsu 1990.655). on August 29 the CCP Central committee officially announced the birth of Communes. 26000 communes controlled the area's agricultureal as well as industrial resources; collected taxes; and operated schools, banks, nurseries, public kitchess, old folks homes, public cemeteries, etc. It appropriated all private properties such as land, houses, and livestock(Hsu 1990.656). the government proudly announced at the end of 1958 taht industrial production for the year had surpassed that of 1957 by 65%. in August 1959, 3 million of the 11 million tons of steel produced in 1958 was pronounced unfit for industrial use(657). However, Immanuel Hsu in his book even did not mention the great famina at all.


 楼主| 发表于 11/22/2014 15:45:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/22/2014 16:19 编辑

Rafe De Crespigny, China This Century, New York, Oxford University Press, 1992.pp.2220233.

In 1959, the political force of the party,and the authoritarian nature of government(Crespigny 1992:222).China looked for a position of leadership among the Afro-Asian community...foreign policy of self-reliance and the spread of revolution had brought isolation, encirclement, mistrust, and frustration(223).

by the end of the first five year plan in 1957 the communists had achieved real success.  in the first months of 1958 communes were formed by teh amalgamation of cooperatives in Hebei, Hena, and southern Manchuria(Crespigny 225).

the output of steel in 1957 was 5.35 mts,but 1n 1958 the target was set at 11 mts, and 30 mts were planned for 1959. the production of food grains rose from 195 million to 375 mts in a single year. in August 1959 when the government announced that grain production in 1958 had been not 375 but only 250 mts (in fact, only 200 mts). production in 1959 declined to 170 million tons and 143.5 in 1960, but net exports of grain rose from 2.7 mts in 1958 to 4.2 mts in 1959, and 2.6 million tons in 1960 (Crespigny 228).

until the 1980s, when Chinese statisticians revealed the catastrophic collapse of grain production from 1959 into the 1960s, there were no official figures to confirm or deny their guesswork. Now estimates indicate that betwen 16 to 27 million people died as a direct result of famine, and national population fell by 10 million in 1960(Crespigny 228).Ever since the early 1980s, when the Chinese Government for the first time published its official, readjusted yet nonetheless fabricated population data with regard to the Great Leap years(Yixin Chen 2010: 117)
 楼主| 发表于 11/22/2014 16:14:44 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/22/2014 17:20 编辑

Yixin Chen,When Food Became Scarceife and Death in Chinese Villages during the Great Leap Forward Famine,The Journal of The Historical Society X:2 June 2010.pp.117-165.

In two of the most recent Chinese books on the Great Leap famine, historian Cao Shuji estimates that the total excessive deaths from 1958 to 1961 numbered 32.5 million people, and journalist Yang Jisheng calculates that total excessive deaths between 1958 and 1962 numbered 36 million. See Cao Shuji, Dajihuang: 1959–1961 nian de zhongguo renkou [The great famine: the Chinese population in 1959–1961] (Hong Kong: Shidai guoji, 2005), 288– 291; Yang Jisheng, Mubei: zhongguo liushiniandai dajihuang jishi [Tombstone: a record of China’s great famine in the 1960s] (Hong Kong: Tiandi tushu, 2008), 900–04.

The fabrication can be found in China’s official population data published by the Central Statistics Bureau and the Ministry of Public Security. According to that set of data, China in 1959 had 672 million people and in 1960 had 662 million, a reduction of exactly 10 million people. However, in the data on death rates in the same volume, in 1960 China’s mortality was 4.57 (i.e., 4.57 deaths per one thousand persons), for a total loss of only 3,041,483 people. See Guojia tongjiju renkou tongjisi, gonganbu sanju: Zhonghua renmin gongheguo renkou tongji ziliao huibian, 1949–1985 [Compendia of the population data of the People’s Republic of China, 1949–1985] (Beijing: Zhongguo caizheng jingji chubanshe, 1988), 2, 280. Chinese sociologist Jin Hui first noticed these inconsistencies in China’s official population data. See Jin Hui, “Sannian ziran zaihuai beiwanglu” [Memorandum of the three-year natural disaster], Shehui nos. 4–5 (1993). Available at http://www.chinafamine.org (accessed June 10, 2009).

about commune dinning hall as the key of starvation of peaseats see Dali Yang, Calamity and Reform in China: State, Rural Society, and Institutional Change since the Great Leap Famine (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1996), 55.

political scientists and economists have long reasoned that the people’s commune public dining hall—a system in place between August 1958 and June 1961 that compelled five hundred million rural people to dine collectively upon assigned rations in their villages—was the key factor in the occurrence of the famine(Chen 2010: 118).




 楼主| 发表于 11/24/2014 20:21:45 | 显示全部楼层
Death Rate of the Chinese Provinces, 1954–64 (.1%)
Province 1955 1956 1957          19581959 1960 1961 1962         1963 1964
Anhui 11.8 14.25 9.1                 12.36 16.72 68.58 8.118.51         7.92 8.59
Fujian 8.26 8.43 9.02                 7.5   7.95   15.6112.18 8.28        7.51 8.68
Gansu 11.98 10.78 11.33            21.11 17.38 41.32 11.48 8.25       10.38 15.55
Guangdong 10.7 11.19 8.42        9.1511.76 15.09 10.67 9.32         11.78 8.32
Guangxi 14.8 12.48 12.42           11.98 17.33 29.2 20.37 10.15       10.34 10.55
Guizhou 16.24 13.01 12.35         15.26 20.28 52.33 23.27 11.64     17.14 20.66
Hebei 11.86 11.26 11.59             10.92 12.31 12.19 13.34 8.97        10.66 10.48
Heilongjiang 11.33 10.08 10.45  9.1712.76 10.52 11.12 8.62          8.5611.47
Henan 11.75 14 11.8                   12.69 14.1 39.65 10.28.04             9.39 10.65
Hubei 11.6 10.81 9.61                 9.6 14.49 21.22 9.08 8.77             9.83 10.94
Hunan 16.41 11.5 10.35              11.58 12.92 29.26 17.48 10.23     10.26 12.88
Inner Mongolia 11.40 7.90 10.50 7.90 11.00 9.40 8.80 9.00               8.50 11.80
Jiangsu 11.65 12.81 10.04             9.3314.55 18.41 13.35 10.36         9.0410.13
Jiangxi 16.23 12.49 11.47             11.3313.01 16.06 11.54 11.00        9.76 10.87
Jilin 9.91 7.53 9.05                        9.12 13.43 10.13 11.129.96            9.44 12.62
Liaoning 9.40 6.60 9.40                8.8011.80 11.50 17.50 8.50              7.909.30
Ningxia N.A. N.A. N.A.               14.1 15.81 13.88 10.71 8.49             10.22 13.44
Qinghai 13.76 9.34 10.4               12.64 16.29 40.73 11.68 5.35           8.37 15.53
Shaanxi 10.55 9.85 10.31              11.04 12.76 12.27 8.76 9.35              10.55 15.60
Shandong 13.73 12.16 12.05          12.77 18.14 23.51 18.49 12.35           11.78 12.06
Shanxi 12.93 11.6 12.68                 11.73 12.84 14.21 12.2 11.34             11.44 13.98
Sichuan 13.26 11.79 11.82             17.37 19.22 47.78 28.01 14.61           12.82 13.87
Yunnan 13.76 15.21 16.29             21.62 17.96 26.26 11.84 10.86          14.14 15.23
Zhejiang 12.58 9.46 9.32                 9.15 10.81 11.88 9.84 8.61                 7.89 9.21

Source.—State Statistical Bureau, A Compendium of Materials on Population andCensus
Statistics, 1949–1985 (Renkou Tongji Ziliao Huibian, 1949–1985) (Beijing:Zhongguo Caizheng
Jingji Chubanshe [China’s Economic and Financial Press], 1988).
   

 楼主| 发表于 11/24/2014 22:03:01 | 显示全部楼层
人的生命需要能量维持,生命的活动就是能量的循环。机体静卧在摄氏20度的环境中,完全处于休息状态,既无体力劳动,也无脑力劳动, 肠胃也不蠕动。65公斤体重的男子,24小时需要的能量是1560千卡。农民在野外从事重体力劳动,一天需要能量在3400-4000千卡之间。在大饥荒期间,中国农村平均口量定量为每天0.35斤大米,折合热量618千卡。农民每天差2000多千卡的能量。人体的能量入不敷出时,首先动用体内储存的“糖原”,。体内存储的“糖原”可以维持一天。下一步就消耗体内的脂肪。完全依靠脂肪产生热量可能发生代谢性酸中毒。体内存储的脂肪消耗完毕时,便开始分解体内各器官、肌肉中的蛋白质。蛋白质被分解,使各脏器萎缩:肾脏萎缩出现肾功能不全;胃肠道黏膜萎缩,使营养消化吸收减少······由蛋白质组成的各种抗体、各种酶也迅速减少,这就会出现一系列疾病。生命力顽强的人,在这个过程中没有死,最后因心脏的蛋白质被分解,就因心肌萎缩心力衰竭而死。什么叫饿死?是在人体能量严重短缺的情况下,在消化人体自身的过程中,产生一系列的疾病而死。
 楼主| 发表于 11/25/2014 04:43:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/25/2014 17:24 编辑

The CCP cheating the world aboutgreat leap famine
中共在大饥荒问题上长期故意欺骗。美国联邦调查局于1959年2月日的一份报告中,初步判断中国的粮食生产有“非常出色的增长”!In a report of CIA onFeb 1959 “preliminary judgement” about Chinese food output was that there were“remarkable increases in production”(Jung Chang 2005:459);国务院办公室公然欺骗国际红十字会称:“我国1960年获史无前例的大丰收,绝对没有饥荒。有关饥荒的传说是诽谤性的谣言”! Beijing answer Red Cross’s offer help with “the country had witnessed and unprecedentedly rich harvest in1960, there was absolutely no famine and rumoursto the country were slanderous” (Dikotter 2010:115; see Beijing ForeignAffair Minister 1959, 127,109. P.13.).法国社会党领袖(后任总统)密特朗在1961年访华时,毛泽东对他说:“我再说一遍,中国不存在饥荒。”Formal Frenchpresident Francois Mitterrand in January1961 visited China praised Mao as ‘a great scholar known in the entire world for the diversity of his genius’,Mao said to him that calamities thathad been "unknown for a century" hadstuck the country; “I repeat it, inorder to be heard: there is no famine in China,but only ‘a period of scarcity’”( Guillermaz1976:231;Jung Chang 2005:460;Dikotter 2010: 114;see L'Express,  January 23, 1961)。1960年加拿大国会议员后成为首相的特鲁多访华, 著书特别批驳外界对大饥荒的报导,说中国没有饥荒!The future Canadian prime minister PierreTrudeau came to China in January 1960 then wrote a book, Two Innocents in RedChina, which rejected reports of famine(Jung Chang 460);甚至前联合国粮农组织专家波尔德沃爵士于一九五九年访华后说:中国的粮食产量从五五年到五八年翻了整整一番,中国人“看来都丰衣足食”!Even United Nations’ grainexpert Lord Boyd Orr  In May 1959, aftera trip to China,  opined that foodproduction had risen 50-100 percent over 1955 -1958 and that China “seemscapable of feeding its population well”(460);英国陆军元帅蒙哥马利在一九六0、一九六一两次访华后宣称:“中国没有大规模的饥荒,只在有的地方粮食不足。” BritishGeneral Bernard Montgomery, after visitedChina in 1960 and 1961, asserted that there had been “no large sale famine,only shortages in certain areas”(460)。
中共官方迄今欺骗国人所谓“三年自然灾害”,“三年困难时期”,而实质上是五年大饥荒!然而,迄今仍有不少中外学者上当受骗。Official deceitfully describe the great leap famine as“three years of natural disasters” or “three years difficult period”. A number ofChinese and Western scholars also fooled by the CCP to date.
Tominimize their losses and keep enough food to eat, communes were saying that they had been struck by natural disaster. Theirharvest had been abundant, but the weather had destroyed it (Li 1994: 283). Atthe end of May 1959, Mao went to Wuhan, Wang Renzhongclaimed the famine was the result of natural disasters. But there had been no natural disaster in Hubei. Theweather in 1958 and 1959 had been splendid, much of the abundant crop hadsimply not been collected (Li 299). Wehrli (1991)examinesrecords of weather events for various years for the country as a whole and fortwo provinces most heavily impacted by the famine, and finds no relationshipbetween incidence of natural disasters and famine mortality(Riskin 1998:121). In early 1961, Deng Xiaoping told foreigndelegations that the reason China successfully overcome 1956-1960 naturaldisasters, was a result of newly built water conservancy projects and commune(Chung 2013:167)! at first bad weather conditionsalone were responsible for the difficulties, more than 60millionhectares out of 106 million were affected, 26 million of these seriously .Inview of the serious natural calamities that affected agricultural productionfor two successive years (Guillermaz 1976: 230; see the Editorials of 29 Dec1960 and 1 January 1961 People's Daily.) unusuallysevere natural disasters affected large parts of country in 1959 and 1960 ,such as Henan(Bernstein 2006:421). The typical victim of forced brain-washingis Jack Chen, who was invited to a number of prominent US university as a lecturerin 1970s, in his book sincerely defense the CCP regime and its criminal nature ofthe great leap forward:  "when the natural calamities of 1959 -1961 cut down harvestyields, worried leaders took to raiding peasant homes to ferret out needed foodand fodder(Chen Jack 1975: 129). "farming in 1959 washit by an unexampled run of bad weather and natural calamities: drought,floods, typhoons, hailstorms, and pests that played havoc with whatharvests there were(132)." " but again thatyear(1959) all kinds of natural disasters beset China's farms(133)"."bad weather continued into 1960.
大跃进从上到下,从官方到民间,中国人似乎丧失了理性而变成没有常识的疯狂人。人人欺骗,比赛吹牛皮拍马屁。报纸广播整天狂轰滥炸形势大好。说谎者受奖励升级,说真话者则惨遭迫害丢官去职。因为毛鼓励吹牛皮拍马屁,正如毛的政治秘书田家英讽刺的那样:“楚王好细腰,宫女多饿死”。官员为讨好毛不惜公然造假,从土高炉到粮食亩产十三万斤堂而皇之刊载《人民日报》首页。
Peopleare telling lies, boasting. They have lost their sense of shame. Some of thereports coming in from the provinces were claiming average grain yields per muof ten thousand pounds. “This ridiculous it is shameful” Tian Jiaying said.(Li1994: 276) He blamed the deceit on the atmosphere created by Mao. in shanghaiform April 2 to 5 1959 Mao was still optimistic. Mao blamed the partyleadership for the dislocations of the GLF. False reports and inflatedstatistics were rampant. "there are so many lies"he said to Li" when there is pressure from thetop, and there will be lies from the bottom"(Li 295). But the real pressure had come from Mao. He himselfhad created the atmosphere that made it so difficult for party leaders to tellthe truth. In Hubei, party secretary Wang Renzhong hadordered the peasants to remove rice plants from faraway fields and transplantthem along Mao's route, to give the impression of a wildly abundantcrop. All China all the people performers in an extravaganza for Mao(Li 278) Lihad seen in Anhui the finished steel that Zeng Xishengclaimed had been produced by the backyard steel furnace was fake, deliveredthere from a huge modern factory(Li 278). Lin Ke said that thenewspapers were filled with falsehoods, they would not dare tell the publicwhat was really happening”(Li 279). The CCP is the shameless greatest liar inthe world.For example, before 1986, The official reckoning of the number ofpeople "persecuted to death" during the CR is put at approximately35,000 (Joseph 1986.420). However, in fact, millions and 20 million people losttheir life during 1966 and 1967.  
LiFuchun's report to the national people's congress on March 30, 1961, gives thelast firm figures published before 1970. Show that grain harvested in 1959 was270 million tons, 1962, 250 million tons (Guillermaz 1976: 236). But infact, from 1958 up to 1965 for grain (in million tons): 205, 170, 150, 160,170, 182, 195, 200[1].inLi fuchun's report, agricultural production in 1959 at 78300 million yuan (16.7percent more than in 1958)!

Mao want to prove Peng's wrong, restoring the loss of face, none dare to tellMao truth. Mao was caught in a web of deception of his own making. everyonereported news that made Mao very happy. In April 1960, Liao Luyan, the ministerof agriculture, told Mao that 1960 harvest would be about 300 MMT ( actual only143.5 MMT) when Mao asked whether it could be more, Tan Zhenlin, responded inthe affirmative.
体制内党用文人甚至有些西方学者辩称:大跃进的错误是因为虚夸而非恶意,动机是好的,是好心办坏事,是交学费,是经验不足,是胜利面前冲昏了头脑,是缺乏建设社会主义的经验等等。
The GLF’s errors are seen as a product ofover exuberance, not malice. At the conclusion of aself-criticism for his part in the GLF, Bo Yibo reflected in 1981 that "the masses excused us for doing wrong things because ourintentions were good" [2] the errors of the GLFshould be regarded as "setbacks occurring in the processof our Party's probing socialism" (Shi Zhongqiang, 1981: 54)[3]. Thus the GLF is viewed asa period in which the Party made drastic mistakes but ultimately was able toredeem itself through the established mechanisms of rectification andself-criticise(Joseph 1986:423).
法国哲学家萨特称大跃进有“深厚的道德”!而法国作家Simone de Beauvoir于访问中国后称:毛泽东并不比美国总统罗斯福独裁。邓小平19606月底在接等外国贵宾时还在为大跃进和大炼钢铁运动辩护。毛还利用亲共作家埃德加斯诺,混血儿韩素英,及Felix Greece等为中共暴政涂脂抹粉。
Foreign visitors were all toowilling to jump to the defence of Maoism:  the French philosopher Jean Paul Sartrethought Mao's great leap forward was "profoundlymoral"(Gelber 2007:356).Frenchwriter Simone de Beauvoir visited Chinn in 1955 then pontificated that “thepower Mao exercises is no more dictatorial than Rosevelts’s was;[4] Deng defendedthe GLF and the mass steel making campaign to foreign visitors in late June1960(Chung 2010:170)


[1] Chao, Kang. Agricultural Production in Communist China.1949-1965(Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1970) chapter 10.

[2] BO YIBO (1981)"Respect and remembrance-marking the 60th anniversary of the founding ofthe CCP." Hongqi 13, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, DailyReport: China, July 29, 1981: K26-36.

[3] SHIZHONGQIANG(1981) "An example of summing up historical experience."Hongqi 14, in Joint Publications Research Service 78929: 49-62.

[4] JungChang, Mao, The Unknown Story, Alfred A.Knopf, New York. 2005. P.460


 楼主| 发表于 11/25/2014 16:35:14 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/25/2014 16:36 编辑

How many people starveling todeath during great leap famine?


Before 1981 scholar believedChina did not have famine during 1959-1961, because Chinese government totallyhide any information about the truth. For example: Kenneth Walker(1962),anagricultural economist, argued “a bumper harvest in 1958, and large stocks putdown in 1958 ‘help to explain why China has notsuffered from wide spread hunger’ despite three subsequent years of poorharvests”.[1]  G.William Skinner saw a breakdown of the rural trading network but not famine. The great leap famine during1958-1961, widespread famine, which had so often afflicted China in the past,when the death toll during lean years ran into the millions, did not occur(Karnow 1972: 104).However, 70000 peoplewere reported to have died of starvation in Kansu province.[2]the initial mistakes made in organizing the communes and the horrors badweather, in fact throw China's economy into a crisis that took three years toovercome. the nation was brought to the verge of famine(Chen 1975:133)...though various self help, along with the centralized organization of thecommunes and a strict rationing system, pulled the country through the crisis without grave loss of life. Yet there was serious malnutrition in some places, and thebirthrate dropped sharply as ill nourished women ceased to conceive(Chen1975:133).


After state statistic bureaureveal the relevant population and death rate date, Chinese and western expertsstarting to research the true and the result has electric shocking effect. Therewere huge famines between 1959 and 1961 in which some 30 million people or moredied. in short, the great leap was a disaster a man made catastrophe(Gelber2007: 357).between 15 and 40 million people starved to death in the faminecaused by the Great Leap Forward in the years between 1959 and 1961. despite ofthe famine, the Communist Party of China (CCP) and its leader Mao Zedongmanaged to stay in power(Wemheuer 2010:178).


The normal average death rate in China is about1.0to 1.1%, but during 1958 to 1961, are much higher than usual: 1958/12.50;1959/14.61;1960 /28.58;1961/14.58.[3]In 1960, death rate in the most severely afflicted provinces were 6.86% inAnhui, 5.4% in Sichuan; 5.23% in Quizhou; 4.13% in Gansu; 3.96% inHenan.  Some county the death rate reach 50%, a number of village even100%, in prisons and forced labour concentration 5-10%. Even in 1957, 147.041people died in Gansu; in 1960, 538,479 died; In Henan, 572000 people died in1957, in 1960, 1.98 million died[4].  For instance: The Xinyang incident in Henan province 549,171 or 6.5% death. Maopersonally characterized as a counterrevolutionary restoration. Purged formalparty leaders and undesirable elements were beaten, many killed; at least10000 be executed. Mao said  “I have notyet killed a county party secretary, give them commuted death sentences”. Anothermost serious province is Sichuan,  deathrate  rose from 12 to 25 per thousand.The Sichuan famine was also more severe than almost anywhere else in China[5]. ruralavailability fell from around 197 kgs per head in 1957 to a low of 133 kgs in1959. The death rate actually exceeded 100 in six of the eleven countiesin one year or other in Fuling. exceeded 100 per thousand in 23 counties;surpassed 150 per thousand in five. In the counties of Pixian (175 per 1,000 in1960), Shizhu (168 in 1960), Rongxian (165 in 1960), Fengdu (163 in 1960) andYingjing (151 in 1959)

The question of how many peopledied as the result of the Great Leap still remains controversial. Scholars havederived different figures based on Chinese population statistics published inthe early 1980s. The exact number might never clear until the CCP regime collapse.Peng Xizhe calculates 23 million deaths in 14 provinces.[6]  Ansley Coale comes to the conclusion that 16.5million people died[7],while Basil Ashton counts 30 million deaths and 30 million missing births.[8] ChenYizi claimed that the team had arrived at a death toll of 43 to 46 million ofthe famine[9].JasperBecker estimates 43 to 46 million casualties, on the basis of a Chinesegovernment internal investigation[10], Basinghis estimate on 1462 counties gazetteers, historian demographer Cao Shu jisuggests excess mortality(during 1959-1961) to be 32.5 million; while YangJisheng did extensive exams of twelve provinces archives reach 36 million; Formal public minister populationdemographer Wang Weizhi believe during 1959-1961 starvation to death about35.46 million, plus 1958 and 1962 the death roll is about 37.7million.  Chang and Halliday computed 38 milliondeaths, Dikotter confirm that the deathtoll stands at a minimum of 45 million excess deaths. YuXiguang, an independentresearch with a great deal of experience part the figure of 55 million excessdeath(Dikotter 2010: 334).


[1]KennethWalker comments “ On China's descanting spiral”, The China Quaterly, no. 12. 1962:46-47. See also Basil Ashton andKenneth Hill, “Famine in China, 1958-1961”, Populationand Development Review , Vol. 10, No. 4 [1984], pp. 613-45). Penny Kane, Famine in China, 1959-61: Demographic andSocial Implications (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1988); and Carl Riskin,"Seven Questions about the Chinese Famine of 1959-61", China Economic Review , Vol. 9, No. 2 (1998),pp. 1 1 1-24.
[2] Karnow,Stanley. Mao and China: Inside China's CulturalRevolution. Penguin Books 1972.pp.92-109
[3]Ruraldeath rate per 1000 people:
year                         death rate per 1000
1957                        11.07
1958                        12.50
1959                        14.61
1960                        28.58
1961                        14.58
1962                        10.32
source: China tongji nian jian 1984 ( Beijing China tongji press 1984) p.83.
[4] Yang, Dali. Calamity and Reform in China ( Stanford:U of California Press 1996 p.38)
[5] For theliterature on Sichuan, see Cao Shuji, TheGreat Famine, pp. 193–215 and Yang Jisheng, Tombstone, pp. 161–228;
[6] Xizhe Peng,"Demographic Consequences of the Great Leap Forward in China'sProvinces", Population  andDevelopment Review , Vol. 13, No. 4 [1987], p. 649.
[7] Ansley Coale,"Population Trends, Population Policy, and Population Studies inChina", Population and DevelopmentReview, Vol. 7, No. 1 [1981], pp. 85-97.
[8] Basil Ashton andKenneth Hill, “Famine in China, 1958–1961,” Populationand Development Review, Vol. 10, No. 4 (1984), p. 614.
[9] A team of 200 was instructed by ZhaoZiyang, general party secretary, to go around every province to examineinternal party documents, confirm that the famine during 1958 to 1962  ruined 43 to 46 million Chinese people, butthe report never published.
[10] Jasper Becker, Hungry Ghosts: Mao's Secret Famine(London: John Murray, 1996).



 楼主| 发表于 11/25/2014 23:16:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/25/2014 23:20 编辑

Natural disasters or politicaldisasters: Murderlized the great leap famine!


Mao on March 26 1959 at Shanghaiconference said that “If all are unable to eat their fill, then all will die.It is better for half to die, so that half of the people can eat their fill”[1].. the 'people' whom Maowas willing to let die of starvation turn out to be not people at all, butlarge-scale industrial projects" the author argued (Garnaut 2010:238). 毛在一九五九年三月二十六日上海锦江饭店中共政治局绝秘会议上公然宣称:“大家吃不飽,大家死,不如死一半,給一半人吃飽。”因为早在1958年春毛已知全国十二个省发生严重的饥荒。然而,英国牛津大学历史教授居然将毛之“人”解释为“大型工业企业”,亦即这位洋教授迄今不知出于何种动机,居然为公认的无知暴君瞎辩。


official claimed that the failureof the Great Leap Forward: leftist mistakes, the lackof experience with socialist construction and the weather as an external force.a leftist mistake which the central government committed, the history ofleftist mistakes was written as a tragedy of goodintentions. Crimes which caused millions ofdeaths could be de-emphasized as mistakes (Wemheuer 2010:179).

Deng Xiaoping said that MaoZedong, along with other leading comrades from the central leadership such asLiu Shaoqi, Zhou Enlai and himself had become a “hothead” during the high tide of the Great Leap(1983:296)[2]. the resolutionexplained that facing victory the comrades fromthe central government and the lower ranks became arrogantand self-satisfied. almost the same word oftranslation of local cadres during the collectivization of agriculture in theSoviet Union in 1929.


Mao declared openly that "If the worst came to the worst and half of mankind died, theother half would remain while imperialism would be razed to the ground and thewhole world would become socialist"(Spence 1999545; quoted at Stuart Schram, The Political Thought of Mao (New York,1972)pp.408-409)毛公然宣称:即使最坏的情况及一半人类死亡,另一半人将续存而帝国主义将被消灭,全世界将变成社会主义。

Mao saw practical advantage in massive deaths."Deaths have benefits, they can fertilise the ground” ,he told the topechelon on 9Dec 9, 1958. when he was in Moscow in 1957, he had said: "weare prepared to sacrifice 300 million Chinese for the victory of the worldrevolution."and Mao told the Party congress on 17 May 1958: "donotmake a fuss about a world war. at most, people die…half the population wipedout, this happened quite a few times in Chinese history… it's best if half thepopulation is left, next best one third…"nor was Mao just thinking about awar situation. On 21 November 1958, talking to his inner circle about thelabour intensive prejects like waterworks and making steel, and tacitly, almostcasually, assuming a context where peasants had too little to eat and werebeing worked to exhaustion, Mao said:"working like this, with all theseprojects, half of China may well have to die. If not half, one  third , or one tenth -50million die". If50 million deaths I could be fired, and I might even lose my head… but if youinsist, I'll just have to let you do it, and you canot blame me when peopledie"(439).1958129日毛对亲信说死人有好处,可以肥田1957年在莫斯科世界共产党峰会上毛说我们准备牺牲三亿中国人,以赢得世界革命的胜利(Jung Chang4391958517日在党代会上毛说别对世界大战大惊小怪,至多人民死一半,这在中国历史上多次发生,死一半人口最佳,死1/3次之(439)”19581121日毛对亲信说大型水利工程,大炼钢铁,象这样工作,完成所有这些项目,一半中国人可能得死。如果不死一半,死1/31/4,即5000万得死。死5000万我会被开除,甚至掉脑袋。但如果你们坚持,我将不得不让你们干,当人民死亡时就不能怪我(439)”" half of China may well have to die"Jung Chang claim that “Mao knowingly starved and worked these tens of millionsof people to death. ”The accusation that Maodeliberately exposed China's peasants to mass death during the GLF is notplausible . when Mao finally began to grasp the scope of the 1960famine, he strongly supported corrective measures. Chang cited numerous primaryand secondary sources, some of these are used inmisleading ways. A striking instance of the use of misleading Quotationis from a speech given on 21 Nov 1958(Bernstein 443).

On 19 August 1958,Mao clamped down even further onanyone moving without authorisation, what he called “ people roaming arounduncontrolled”. The traditional possibility of escaping a famine by fleeing to aplace where there was food, which had long been made illegal, was now blockedoff(Jung Chang 435). 1958819日毛下令:未经许可社员不得离开所在地。从此堵死了历朝历代饥民逃荒之途。There was plenty of food in state granaries, whichwere guarded by the army. But the order from above was “ absolutely no openingthe granary door even if people are dying of starvation”(Jung Chang 438). 尽管国家粮库内存放着大量库存粮,皆为军队把守着,上面命令即使人民饿死绝对不许开仓

In Late January 1959 Mao went tonortheast to see both steel factories and coal mines and conclusive. Highquality steel can be produced any in huge modern factories using reliable fuel,like coal. But he gave no order to halt thebackyard steel furnaces (Li 291). in July1959,but 60 million able bodied peasants, strong and healthy men who ought tohave been at work in the fields, were still working on the backyand steelfurnaces(Li 306). 毛泽东于1959年1月亲自到东北铵钢和煤矿查看后已明知土高炉纯属浪费资源功力和金钱的劳民伤财之举,却不采取任何措施停止之。结果造成至少五十亿元纯经济损失,且不包括自然资源,森林生态环境破坏带来的巨额经济损失!


According to Bo Yibo’s memories, unusually severenatural disasters affected large parts of country in 1959 and 1960 , such asHenan. Between late 1960 and 1961, the Party made great efforts to fight thefamine. The Chinese government imported grain to feed starving peasants, publicdining halls were abolished and private plots reintroduced[3] (Wemheuer 2010:179).异常严重的自然灾害影响了国家大部地区,诸如河南。党采取了极大努力迎战饥荒中国政府于19601961年进口粮食畏其人民。然而事实上中国政府仅是到了1962年才在国际市场上购买了约1000万吨粮食,不过真正进口用于国内救灾者仅约500万吨。19581961年中国事实上出口粮食1200万吨。

Mao told Li that “if we were to add up all the landlords, rich peasants, counterrevolutionary, badelements and rightists, reach thirty millions, they are enemies of thepeople”(Li 217). how little the lives of his countrymen meant to Mao. “we have so many people we can afford to lost a few. whatdifference does it make?” Mao ask Li(Li 217).如果将全国地富反坏右集中在一起共有三千万人民的敌人。我们人口众多,即使死些人又有什么关系

Mikoyan came to meet Mao in Hangzhou in 1957 totalks on China’s proposed development of nuclear weapons. The discuss with Maoshaken him, and greatly distressed by Mao's nonchalance about the massive lossof human life(Li 206). Mao argued that China couldafford to lose tens of millions of people in a nuclear war.米高杨于1957年到杭州市访毛讨论毛所要求的苏联援助制造原子弹事宜,毛争辩说在核大战中中国可以承受丧失数千万人命,令米氏深感震惊。

On July 1958, Mao told Le that “Let us get the USinvolved. Maybe we can get the US to drop an atombomb on Fujian. Maybe ten or twenty million people will be killed”(Li 262).On August  23, 1958 Mao's answer Khrushchev by shells Quemoy island.Seeing Khrushchev's efforts at world peace as an attempt to control him andChina, Mao deliberately tried to trip up the game. Maowas convinced that Jiang Jieshi wanted the US to drop an atom bomb on Fujianand Mao would not have minded if it had. His shelling of Quemoy was adare to see how far the US would go. Khrushchev thought he wanted to retakeTaiwan. But that was never Mao's intention (Li 270).1958823日毛下令炮击金门后对李志妥说:把美国拖进来,也许我们可以让美国人向福建投放原子弹,或许一两千万人会被炸死毛相信蒋介石会要求美国用原子弹炸福建省,毛对此无所谓。他想测试美国人的底线,赫鲁晓夫以为毛要攻击台湾,但毛并无收复台湾之意。

local official did not dare to report the truth. Buta great deal of information did reach Mao duringthe autumn of 1958 and first half of 1959. In contrast, Aug 1959 and the last weeks of Feb 1960, the availablerecords indicate Mao did not receive adverse information. partly becauseof the extraordinary harshness of anti-rightist campaign, some courageousindividuals may have submitted truthful reports, Mao choose not to cut on them,sincere he was fanatically determined to push the leap to further heights(Bernstein2006423)地方干部不敢报告真相。但是1958年秋和1959年上半年,毛确实收到了大量真实的饥荒情报。相比较自1959年八月至1960年二月,可查阅的纪录显示毛未收到负面情报。部分是由于反右倾机会主义的严厉清洗(350万中央和地方党干加上380万非党地方干部被划为右派惨遭清洗迫害,按邓小平的说法是1000万党干惨遭迫害,受牵连家属数千万)。有些勇敢的个人可能提交了真实的灾情报告,毛选择不予采信,因为他狂热地决定进一步推行大跃进。

in 1960 Beidaihe Central work conference, from 5July to 10 Aug, spent 70-80 % times on international matters and only at theend was the grain problem disasters, only onOctober 1960 did Mao begin to grasp the dimensions of the rural catastrophe," he stopped eating meat from Oct"(Bernstein 2006441). 196075日至810日之北戴河会议,70-80%花在讨论国际议题上,仅在会议结束前简要地讨论了粮食问题灾难,只到10月毛才开始意识到灾荒事态严重,此时毛停止了吃猪肉(但事实上毛山珍海味浦张浪费远超过历史上任何帝王)!

Mao's fanatical commitment achieve socio-economicbreak through by means of all-out mobilizational campaigns. Mao was fully prepared to accept mass death as the priceof progress(Bernstein 2006:444).  毛完全准备接受群众死亡作为发展的代价。

To this day,ruthless though he was, I believe Mao launches the GLF to bring good to China.But he had no modern education and no idea of what the modern world was or howChina might join it(Li 351). “ I hate the hypocrisy around me, the communistleaders' public carping against the corrupt bourgeois life style, the toutingof their hight and lofty communist moral principles ,while they themselves wereliving lives of luxury as the masses suffered and toiled and died ”(Li 354).尽管毛冷酷无情,我迄今仍相信毛发动大跃进是想为中国好。但他未受过现代教育,对现代世界几无所知,且不知道中国如何溶入现化世界。

after the false report of a bumper harvest, the cadres started a campaign to collect the “hiddengrain” from the peasants, a famine broke out in the spring of 1959 inhuangjiang Guangxi; new Party secretary ordered theexecution of every person who tried to steal grain from the full grainstores(Wemheuer 183)。在谎报虚假的丰收之后,干部们展开对农民们的反瞒产运动。1959年春广西暴发严重的饥荒,新任党书记下令向任何企图偷窃粮食的人开枪。

the famine in Bo county, Anhui, was caused by falsereports and unfeasibly high planning targets and grain procurement quotas; Liangzhiyuan remembers how the cadres used hunger as aweapon to control the peasants. Party committee established check pointswith armed militia at every bus station and crossroads to prevent peasantsescape.He found that over 25 per cent of the members of the investigatedbrigade had starved to death[4].In 1953 Chen Yun pointed out "If we adopt compulsory procurement methods, the peasantsmay oppose us".Chen Boda had written well andextravagantly in praise of the GLF. asserted that with the GLF the dawn ofcommunism had arrived. China was accomplishing in one day what took twentyyears to accomplish under capitalism. Communism was around the corner(Li 390).陈伯达写了极力赞美大跃进的妙文。中国已经取得一天超过资本主义二十年的成就。共产主义就在墙角了!From November 28to December 10 1958 Wuhan the Sixth Plenum continued the effort to bring morereality to the Great Leap Forward. Zhou flattery Mao said that "Today we have that kind(one day equals twenty years ) ofproductive power"(Li 282).Ke Qingshi followed suit" Haven's wealready outdone Marx in both theory and practice?"周恩来在1958年武汉会议的洒晏上恭维毛说:“今天我们已有了一天等于二十年的生产能力”。柯庆施跟着吹毛:“我们不是已让马克思在理论与实践均过时了吗?” I realizedthat Zhou was Mao's slave, absolutely, obsequiouslyobedient. Everything he did was designed to court favor with Mao, and beloyal to Mao. Neither he nor his wife had a shred of independent thought(Li258). 周恩来是毛的奴隶,绝对忠于且毫无保留地服从毛,他所作的任何事皆以让毛欢喜为宗旨。周与邓顷超均没有自已的独立思想。


Deng Xiaoping encouraged LiJingquan to his regard popular welfare in pursuit of central government grainquotas, and shielded Li from criticism during 7000 cadre conference. In April1959, Deng was well aware that famine hadbegun to occur in some provinces, having handle a case in which it had claimedthe dies of half the people and live stock in a village in Qinghai. Deng took no action to mitigate or avert the unfoldingcalamity. Qinghai party boss did not changed his work style andexaggerated, cause farmers continued to starve to death (Chung 154) 。1959年4月日邓小平明知大饥荒已在数省出现,他处理了一起青海过半人口饿死的案例。邓却未采取减轻或避免灾难的行动。因此青海省党的书记未改变他的虚夸工作方式,导致农民们继续大量饿死。


Liu Shaoqi ,in a speech to cadres on July 18, 1962,confessed that the peasants " had gainednothing from the collective economy in the last few years". in July1959, speaking  to a group friends duringthe festival of literature and art of the PLA, Zhou Yang charged that the GLFhas "exploited the enthusiasm of the masses"(Chen 146)1962718日刘少奇在对干部们演说时承认农民们在过去数年公社集体经济中未得到任何东西19597月,周杨对一群庆祝解放军文艺界朋友时说大跃进是利用群众的热情

Mao and  other leaders knew what was happening in thecountryside as a result of the Great Leap Forward. In the case of Mao, the smokinggun is in the minutes of a meeting that took place in the Jinjiang Hotel inShanghai on 25 March 1959, when Mao ordered thatprocurements be increased to one-third of all the grain, and madeavailable an extra 16,000 lorries to carry out the task. “When there is not enough to eat, people starve to death. Itis better to let half of the people die so that the other half can eat theirfill.” Mao said.  Detailedevidence of this nature clearly undermines the widespread view that Mao, in themany months before the Lushan Plenum in the summer of 1959, “defended thepeasants”. As a result of Mao's explicit orders, from November 1958 to July1959 procurements 25. According the Penn World Tables, China's GDP per head wasthe lowest in the world in each year between 1952 and 1957[5].毛与其他中共高级领导们均明知由于大跃进导致农村的饥荒情况。毛却于1959年3月26日在上海锦江会议上下令将1958年的25% 提高到33%强行征收农民的粮食!毛说若不超过1/3征收,农民不会造反。而陈云则说要作好十万个村庄暴动的准备。


The leading cadres of the partyand first party secretaries in the provinces were ingratiating themselves withMao, Disregarding the welfare of hundreds of millions ofpeasants.  Taxed according to their faked reports some places weredelivering all they had produced to the state.  Ironically, much ofthe grain that was sent to the state as taxes was exported. Repaying its debtsto the Soviet U Mao could not admit that the communes Khrushchev had sovigorously opposed were anything less than a success (Li 283).中央党政领导及各省党的第一书记们均讨好毛,而无视数亿农民的利益。农产税是按虚高报的数额计收,造成超额征收后普遍所剩无几,有些地方连种子粮也被征走。极具讽刺味的是,大量粮食被用于出口换取并不急需的重工业和军工机器产品及偿还苏联债务,毛不能承认赫氏强力反对的公社集体化政策的失败。亦即毛为了个人脸面不惜牺牲数千万农民的生命。


Zhou Enlai stated in November1958: “I would rather that we either don't eat oreat less and consume less, as long as we honor contracts signed with foreigners”,justifying increased procurements. In Fuyang 2.4 million died out of a totalpopulation of 8 million. A whole chapter entitled "Sites of Horror"shows how, in county after county, over 15 per cent of the population died,sometimes up to a third.  this is whathappened according to a Party boss interrogated by an investigation team inFebruary 1961: “People died in tragic circumstances, being beaten and hanged todeath, deprived of food or buried alive. Some were severely tortured andbeaten, having their ears chopped off, their noses dug out, their mouths tornoff, and so on, which often caused death.” She Dehong estimates that the grainin the grain stores of Xinyang was enough to feed 8 million peasants with aration of 400 grams per day,  If the government had opened the grainstores, nobody would have starved[6].   周恩来1958年11月日声称:我宁愿我们不吃或少吃少消费,也要保证履行与外国人签署的合同。”以便为强制征粮提供合法性。安徽埠阳800万人口中饿死高达240万人。该地区各县超过15%,有些县超过30%人饿死。根据一份1961年2月调查组对党书记的调查报告称:“人民死于极其悲惨之境,或被打死,吊死,剥夺口粮或活埋。有些人被酷刑殴打,耳朵被掉,鼻子被割除,嘴唇被撕裂等等,经常导致死亡”。信阳粮库中有足够800万农民一年每天四百克的粮食,如果及明开仓放粮,一个农民也不会饿死。


the established scholarship on PRC elite politicscontends that there was a distinct ' cooling down ' phase of the Great LeapForward between Nov 1958 and July 1959, Mao championed a series of moderatemeasures that supported the welfare of the rural population (Garnaut 2010235).
in march 1961 the most important issue facing China was the nationwide famine thenclaiming the life of millions of peasants by early 1961, some 10 million Anhuipeasants were on the verge of starvation and millions died in the ensuingmonths. Hundreds of thousands, those with sufficient energy, were fleeing insearch of food. Zeng Xisheng's enthusiasm for the GLF now desperately tries torestore agricultural production. he had begin distributing small plots ofcommunal land to individual peasants, who agreed to farm the land in return forpaying the commune a specified portion of their crop(Li 375). Deng support ofZeng’s proposal " I do not care if its a whitecat or a black cat, it is a good cat so long as it catches mice”. ChenYun said the peasants are doing nothing now butcomplain, all we have to do is give the peasants their own land disband thecommunes . Tao Zhu said " if this iscapitalism then I prefer capitalism . Liu Shaoqi said we have to go intomaximum retreat in both industry and agriculture. We need to adopt the system of household contracts and individualizedfarming." 官方学者声称:195811月至19597月,毛采取了一系列措施旨在保护农民的福利。19613月日中国面临的最严重的问题乃是1961年初已夺去数百万农民生命的全国性大饥荒,近千万安徽农牧民正在饥饿边缘,而数百万已在头几个月饿死。数十万仍有余力者正在亡命天涯寻找食物。热衷于大跃进的曾希圣此时绝望地试图恢复农业生产。他开始分自留地给农民,包产到户。邓小平支持曾的建议不管白猫黑猫,能捉老鼠的就是好猫。陈云说,农民现在不干活仅是抱怨,我们应当解散公社将土地还给农民自已耕种。陶柱说如果这是资本主义,那么我宁要资本主义。刘少奇说我们应当尽可能缩减工农业,采纳家庭合同承包制退还个体农民耕种。

many intellectuals are not interested in theproblems of the peasants. No other event in post-1949 history that challengesthe legitimacy of the CCP at such a high degree. If intellectuals are lookingfor an ally to overcome Party rule, they could start to transmit the memoriesof the peasants into the public space and use the famine as an argument againstthe rule of the CCP(Wemheuer 2010194).中国许多知识分子对农民问题不感趣。1949年以后没有任何其它事件比大饥荒灾难对中共合法性更具挑战性。如果知识分子位正在寻找一个同盟推翻中共的统治,他们应当开始将农牧民的记忆引入公共领域并运用大饥荒作为一种争论反对中共的统治。
   


[1]Mao Zhuxizai Shanghai huiyi shang de chahua, 26 March 1959.
[2] Deng Xiaoping: “Draftthe suggestions for ‘Resolution on some questions concerning the history of theParty since the founding of the PRC’”, in DengXiaoping wenxian, Vol. 2 (Beijing: People Press, 1983), p. 296.
[3] The two 1993volumes Reflections on Certain Major Decisions and Events by the retiredcentral leader Bo Yibo. Bo Yibo, 《若干重大决策与事件的回顾》中央党校出版社 (Reflections onCertain Major Decisions and Events) (Beijing:1993).
[4] Liang Zhiyuan, “大跃进在安徽博县”《中共党史资料》第75(“The ‘GreatLeap Forward’ in Bo county in Anhui”), Zhonggong dangshi ziliao, No. 75 (2000),pp. 5–31.
[5] Cormac O Grada,"Great Leap into Famine",p. 192.  Stephane Courtois (ed.), The Black Book of Communism: Crimes, Terror,Repression (Harvard University Press, 1999).  Jung Chang (Rong Zhang) and Jon Halliday, Mao: The Unkown Story (London: JonathanCape, 2005).
[6] She Dehong, “关于信阳事件的忆述”中国农村研究编辑委会员(编) (“Memories ofthe ‘Xinyang Incident’”), 《中国农村研究》2002 (Bejing:中国社会科学出版社2003), p.325.329.330.


 楼主| 发表于 11/27/2014 02:41:44 | 显示全部楼层
吹牛不上税:狂妄无知以致癫狂
Boasting and lie become the wind of the CCP

At enlarged politiburo conference at Deidaihe, 17-30 August 1958, the first tide of the GLF began. At first aboutthe production of steel, the target set at extremely ambitious level, to raise1958 steel target to 10.7 millions, double 1957, develop commune through thecountries ( Chung 2013:158). At the end of 1958 the Beijing proudly announcedthat industrial production for the year had surpassed that of 1957 by 65%, andhad produced 11 MT steel(Hsu 1990: 657). In fact, steel production had not been11 MT but only 8 MT and it was admitted in August 1959 that 3 MT of steelturned out by the backyard furnaces had proved useless(Clubb1964: 364). 1958
817-30日在北戴河中共政治局扩大会议上,开始了第一波大跃进。首先有关钢铁生产计划1958年将翻倍达1070万吨,并在全国推广人民公社。当年底北京骄傲地对外宣称全年工业产值比上年超出65%,钢产量达1100万吨。而事实上,钢仅产800万吨,而19598月中共不得不承认其中由土高炉生产的300万吨属无用的。

Deng Xiaoping and Li Fuchun make plan Steel mustreach at least 27MT and 30 MT in 1959, 50 MT in 1960 and 80 to 100 MT in 1962!(Chung2013:159169) Henan Wu Zhipu,passed a party resolution to carry out 1960 production plan at any price, 1960steel target was 5.9 times larger than actual than 1959 (Chung 168)! in Nov1958, Mao begin to doubt that it could be reached 27-30 MT of steel, adjustedthe 1959 steel down to 18-20 MT in Dec 1958 at Wuhan; In March 1959 Shanghaiconference, reduced once more to 16.5MT, in mid May further reduced to 13 MT,finally to 12 MT at Lushan conference in July 1959(Chung2013: 160). 邓小平和李富春制定的1959年钢铁产计划2700-3000万吨,19605000万吨,19628000万至一亿吨!毛195811月日开始怀疑是否能完成该计划,因此在12月的武汉会议上调整为1800-2000万吨,又在19593月的上海会议上减为1650万吨,五月份再降为1300万吨,最后七月份在庐山会议上定为1200万吨。质言之,中共明知1958年钢产量实际上合格者仅500万吨,也明知土高炉生产的所谓钢铁纯属废物,邓小平居然能制定出1959年生产钢铁2700-3000万吨的计划!而中共历经多次修改调整最后仍然强制要求全民炼钢1200万吨!尤值一提的是:毛在19591月日已明知土炉不可能生产合格钢材,仍然不阻止劳民伤财荒谬至极的全民大炼钢运动。
State statistical bureau in 1958 claimed that the productionof food crops nearly doubled in one year, i.e., increased from 185 million tons(MT) in 1957 to 375 MT in 1958claimedon April 15, 1959 People's dailybut on August 27 revised to 250 MT (Eckestene1966: 63; Clubb 1964: 365; Garnaut2013:237). Western economists guessed it was 215 MT(Spence 1999:550). In fact,It was under 200 MT (Chen 1975: 129). Generalparty secretary Deng Xiaoping in charge to pass a resolution required thatproduction of grain reach 400-500 MT in 1959; 650 MT in 1960; 750 MT in 1962! (Chung2013:159) later Deng and Li amend it to produce grain 330 to 350 MT in1962(Chung 169). 1959’s targets were extremely ambitious: 525 MT for food crops[1];then cut down to 275 MT; In the late autumn of 1959the regime asserted that 270 MT of grain had been harvested (Clubb 1964:365: Kung and Lin 2003:56),when in fact only 170 MT. No figures were issued for 1960 production inagriculture, which the actual harvest of 143.5 MT(Bernstein 2006:435). In early1961, it entered the world market to buy grain and contracted for the purchaseof some 10 MT of  grains from Canada,Australia, Argentina, France and Burma(Clubb 1964:366), which only half wereused to feat Chinese starving peasants, the other 500MT were sent to a numberof countries as gifts, to show China as a world leader of communist revolution!国家统计局在1959415日之人民日报上声称1958年粮食产量超过1957年产一倍达375百万吨,但于827日修改为250百万吨。西方经济学专家估计仅215百万吨,而实际上仅不到200百万吨。而1959年的粮食生产计划产量更是离谱达525百万吨!党的总书记邓小平负责通过决议,1959年粮食生产四亿到五亿吨;1960年六亿五千万吨;1962年七亿五千万吨!后来邓小平被迫将1962年改为三亿三千万吨。1959年秋末中共当局宣称收获了270百万吨,而事实上仅收170百万吨。1960年当局再也不敢公布相关粮食钢产计划及实际收获量,一切均成为国家秘密;1960年粮食产量跌到最低谷仅1435百万吨。1961年初,当局开始向加拿大,大利亚,阿根庭,法国和缅甸定购约1000万吨谷物。但仅实际进口约500万吨用于救灾,其余皆被中共在国内数千万同胞活活饿死的同时,用于对外援助包括东欧,阿尔巴尼亚,刚果等国。

In 1958 the Chinese press constantly reported foodshortages. There is no indication that mainland China's storage and warehousingfacilities could have accommodated about 40 million tons of grain, neither isthere any evidence of an ambitious program of warehouse construction. If somuch food had been stored in 1958, and more added in 1959, there should havebeen ample stocks to cope with the officially admitted farm productionshortages in 1960 and 1961 and the resultant food crisis(Eckstein 1966:64).1958年中国的报纸时常报导缺粮。大陆中国粮库库容量仅为四千万吨,中国也没有任何扩建粮库的计划。如果1958年加上1959年中共声称的大丰收,本应当有足够的库存对付官方承义的19601961年欠收所致的粮食危机。

Li Fuchun declared that China only need seven yearsto overpass the British, the steel and other main production may be withinthree year to do so. In June 1958, one day Mao asked the minister of IndustrialWang Heshou “whether can double of the steel production”? Wang response rightaway: “no problem”. And Ke Qingshi, Shanghai party’s secretary, boasted thatEast China alone can produce 8 MT steel. when visited Xi Shui commune on 8 Sept1958 Liu Shaoqi told peasants that “China will quickly become a communismstate, soon many of you will see the communism”, in July at the same year Liuspoke to an electrical factory workers that “overpass British is not the issueneed fifteen years, but two or three years is enough”(Dicktter 2010:49, 58). 157年最后提成成二年!刘少奇,邓小平,李富春,柯庆施,李井泉,黄敬,吴芝浦,曾希圣,陶陆家等支持大跃进,虽然陈云,田家英及薄一波反对。李富春称中国仅需要七年超过英国,钢和其他主要产品可在三年内超之。19586月毛问冶金部长王何寿“可否钢产量翻番?”“没有问题!”王部长不假思索答道。柯庆施则跨海口仅华东便能产800万吨,王任重,陶柱,谢富治,吴芝浦,李井泉个个赛吹牛(Dicktter 58)。刘少奇于195898日访徐水公社时对农民及7月间在一家电厂对工人说:“中国将迅速进入共产主义,无需太久,你们许多人将看到共产主义。”“超英不再是15年的问题,两叁年便足够了。






[1] see Zhou Enlai's"Report on Government Work on April 18, 1959” ( New China semimonthly) no. 9,May 6, 1995, p.2; People's daily Dec 18, 1958



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