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全球气侯变化之政策原因

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发表于 11/9/2013 16:32:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
“There is broad agreement within the scientific community that amplification of the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect by the buildup of various gases introduced by human activity has the potential to produce dramatic changes in climate”. [1]

[1]Statement by 49 Nobel Prize winners and 700 members of the National Academy ofSciences, 1990


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:33:26 | 显示全部楼层
Air pollutant cause three serious regional and global changes: global warming, depletion of the stratospheric ozone shield, and acid deposition (acid rain). Carbon dioxide, an air pollutant produced in large quantities when coal and other fossil fuels, oil and natural gas are burned, is the greatest quantities and has the largest total effect (60 %) of all the greenhouse gases, and it has an atmosphere lifetime of more than 1 century. [1]paleoclimatic studies of long-term changes have provided rather convincing evidence of a link between concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and climatic warming. Study suggest a strong correlation between CO2 concentration and air temperature. [2]by 2000, CO2 levels had reached 370ppm, the highest in 20 million years.[3]

[1]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 472

[2]Bill Freedman, Environment Science Canadian Perspective, Prentice Hall CanadaScarborough, Ontario 1998 p. 301

[3]Guy Dauncey with Patrick Mazza, Stormy Weather:101 Solutions to Global Climate Change, New Society Publishers 2001, p. 8


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:35:38 | 显示全部楼层
Why US Government deny the global warming? the main reason seems like following evidence?
Three leading skeptics are Dr.Pat Michaels, Dr.Robert Balling, and Fred Singer, they received $ 160000, $350000 from Western Fuels, German Coal Mining Association, Edison Electric, and Cyprus Minerals; and British Coal Corpration, and OPEC, and $ 48000 from the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Science, Exxon, Shell, Unocal and ARCO. During 1990s, the carbon barons finaced a lobby group Global Climate Coalition, which spent millions in efforts to confuse the public; Fox News runs a column called Junk Science, writtern by Steve Milloy, which trashes any talk of global warming. Steve works for the Cato Institute funded in part by Chevron, Exxon Shell, the American Petroleum Institute, and Amoco. For its science, it relies on the work of Fred Singer and Pat Michaels, to justify its positions on climate change.  The carbon barons spend millions to friend politicians in Washington, Ottawa, in 2000 US presidential campaign, the oil and gas companies spent $30 million dollars(78% to Republicans, 20% to Democratis); transportation companies spent $51million (72% to Republicans, 27 % to Democrats); from 1989-1999, members of the Global Climate Coalition spent $63 million (69% to Republicans, 31% to Democrats), as to George Bush administration the carbon barons have full control of the system.[1]

[1]Guy Dauncey with Patrick Mazza, StormyWeather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change, New Society Publishers2001, p. 50-51


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:36:32 | 显示全部楼层
Sulfur emissions are a respiratory irritant and cause acid deposition. Acid deposition does not recognize borders between states or countries; who should pay for the installation of expensive air pollution devices to reduce emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, should the state emitting the gases be required to pay all the expenses to clean up the air, or should some of the cost be absorbed by the areas that stand to benefit most from a reduction in pollution? Methane, nitrous oxide tropospheric ozone are accumulating in the atmosphere as a result of human activities. Since 1800, the three warmest years on record were 1998, 2001 and 1997, the global temperatures in 1998 may have been the highest in the last 1200 years.[1]Scientists around the world have reached a strong consensus that the 21 st century will experience significant climate change and the human acitivities will have been at least partly responsible for this change. Concluded that human produced air pollutants have caused most of the climate warming observed over the last 50 years. Almost all climate experts agree with the IPCC’s assessment that the warming trend has begun and will continue throughout the 21st century.  The report estimates a very likely chance that we will observe higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas. Higher minimum temperatures fewer frost days, fewer cold days an increase in the heat index, and more intense precipitation events over many areas. The continental interiors in the midlatitudes will experience an increased risk of drought and the some coastal areas will experience stronger hurricanes. [2] The effects of global warming, including changes in sea level, precipitation patterns, organisms, human health, and agriculture. The PICC estimates that the sea level will rise by an additional 48 cm by 2100. Flood, erosion, hurricanes, and other damage as a results. In 2001, the 11000 residents of Tuvalu announced that they must evacuate because the rising sea level has caused lowland flooding, harming their water supply and food production. And no country had agreed to accept the Tuvaluans.[3] Maldives, Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, and Mozambique all has same problems. An abrupt rise in atmospheric temperature coincides with rapid 20th century increases in emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.scientists warn that climate warming may make us vulnerable to this or other as yet unknown surprises, possibly with disastrous consequences. [4]

[1]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 461

[2]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 462

[3]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 466

[4]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 471


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:37:35 | 显示全部楼层
Global warming is complicated by social, economic, and political factors that vary from one country to another.[1]it will difficult for all countries to develop a consensus on dealing with global warming, all nations must cooperate if we are to effectively address global warming and its impacts. Many developing nations may experience the greatest impacts of global warming.

[1]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 471


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:39:35 | 显示全部楼层
Since 1950, 20% of the world’s population in highly developed nations have produced 74% of the CO2 eimssions; currently, they produce about 5 or 6 times more CO2 emissions per person than developing countries,[1] per USA resident emission of more 40 Somalia person per year, and CO2 emissions from developing countries will surpass those form highly developed countries by 2020, 80% of the world’s population living in developing countries.

[1]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 471


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:41:03 | 显示全部楼层
International politics on global climate change
Global climate change (greenhouse warming) is the global commons issues. All nations are affected by the earths climate system, and broad international cooperation is required to mitigate the threat of global warming.[1]no state can anticipate any stabilization in the climate, and its capacity for adaptation could well be overwhelmed by continued warming. Energy is central to every nation’s economy, and the policy changes required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions raise politically difficult policy questions of who should bear the immediate costs.[2]

[1]Gareth Porter, Janet W.Brown, Global Environmental Politics Westview Press1996, p.92

[2]Gareth Porter, Janet W.Brown, Global Environmental Politics Westview Press1996, p.93


 楼主| 发表于 11/9/2013 16:42:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 郭国汀 于 11/9/2013 16:43 编辑

It has long beenknown by scientists that the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere couldcause climate warming by means of greenhouse effect.  The world Meteorological Organization andUNEP took the first major step with a 1985 WMO, the National Aeronautics andSpace Administration, issued a three-volume report concluding that climatechange was already taking place at a relatively rapid rate.[1]In 1988, the testimony of prominent US scientists(Lamont C.Hempel and MatthiasKaelberer) suggesting the climate was already changing irreversibly, primarilybecause of carbon dioxide emissions. In 1988, sponsored by the Canadiangovernment held a conference in Toronto, attended by officials scientists andrepresentatives of industry from 66 countries, was the frist to call for acomprehensive global convention and protocols, a reduction in carbon dioxideemissions by about 20% of 1988 levels by the year 2005; G-7 meeting in Paris in1989 endorsed the idea of a convention. [2]atthe Noordwijk conference in the Netherlands in 1989, the US, the Soviet Union,China, and Japan acted for the first time as a blocking coalition of globalwarming, Soviet Union rejected action on straightforward economic grounds. US arguingthe regulation carbon releases would require major change in lifestyle andindustrial structure, rejecting a target and timetable for controllingemissions in a climate regime. The negotiation of a climate convention began officiallyin Feb 1991, conducted by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for aFramework Climate Convention.Germany, Denmark, Austria, Australia, theNetherlands, and New Zealand had committed to reducing their emissions by 2000or 2005; the US alone among industrialized countries resisted the inclusion ofany binding commitments to targets and timetables.[3]174 nations signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change developed atthe 1992 Earth Summit in Rio.  In 1996 UNClimate Change Convention held in Geneva, highly developed countries agreed toestablish legally binding timetables to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. 160countries held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 decided the timetable. By Oct 2002, 95countries had ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which is legally binding, providesrules on reducing greenhouse gas emissions; calls for a 5.2% reduction inemissions below 1990 levels by 2012. When the Kyoto Protocol entered into forcein February 2005, Australia was one of only four Annex I parties not to haveratified the instrument. The IPCC’s scientist in1990 said that we need an immediate 60% reduction in CO2 emissions below 1990levels in order to stabilize their concentration in the atmosphere. Britishgovernment committed to a 20 % reduction by 2012, French to 21%, and Hollandconsidering a 80% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2040. [4]Guy Dauncey believed that we need an 80% reduction below the 1990 level, by2025. Australia, Canada, Russia, and United States have not ratified it, USsigned in 1998, but withdrew in 2001 on the ground that it would be anunacceptable economic burden. Bush’s strategy was to have US companiesvoluntarily reduce their emissions. The main reasons for the US government’sresistance is that many senators and congressmen owe their election success tocampaign donations by the coal, oil, and auto corporations. [5]the Canadian government viewed Bush’s decision on the Protocol asuncooperative, and the Canadian government chose to ratify the Kyoto Protocolin 2002; Canadian electricity grid is sourced in large part by hydroelectricity,providing energy-intensive industries with opportunities for mitigatinggreenhouse gas.[6]



[1]Gareth Porter, Janet W.Brown, Global Environmental Politics Westview Press1996, p.94

[2]Gareth Porter, Janet W.Brown, Global Environmental Politics Westview Press1996, p.94

[3]Gareth Porter, Janet W.Brown, GlobalEnvironmental Politics, Westview Press 1996, p.95

[4]Guy Dauncey with Patrick Mazza, StormyWeather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate Change, New Society Publishers2001, p. 22.

[5]Guy Dauncey with Patrick Mazza, StormyWeather p. 22.

[6] INGRIDBARNSLEY, Dealing with Change: Australia,Canada and the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, The Round Table Vol. 95, No. 385, 399 – 410, July 2006


 楼主| 发表于 11/10/2013 15:39:26 | 显示全部楼层
Mostgreenhouse gas emissions have come from the burning of fossil fuels in thehighly industrialized countries. in a world of growing economies, in which more than 80 percentof energy consumption is carbon emitting, it is fairly straightforward toestimate that the current 2.5 terawatts of carbon-emissions-free power(generated almost entirely by nuclear plants and hydroelectric installations)would have to be raised to 15 to 20 terawatts by 2050 and to 25 to 40 terawattsby 2100 to stabilize atmospheric carbon concentration at approximately 550parts per million, which is double the pre-industrial concentration (Hoffert etal. 1998).[1]Emissionsof CO2 are associated with many economically important activities, making itextremely difficult to reduce them rapidly; the major CO2 emitting activitiesinclude the use of fossil fuels in industry, transportation, and space heating;


[1]Galiana, Isabel, Jeremy Leonard, andChristopher Green. 2012. ATechnology-Led Climate Change Policy for Canada. IRPP Study 34. Montreal:Institute for Research on Public Policy.


 楼主| 发表于 11/10/2013 15:40:40 | 显示全部楼层
Even if all countries were to implement the Kyoto Protocol fully, it would not prevent the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases, only slow their rate of buildup. [1] it is only the first step in addressing climate warming. Even if we were to immediately stop polluting the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, global temperature, would continue to increase for many decades because of the greenhouse gases that have accumulated during the past 100 years. In Canada, many departments at various levels of government have had to incorporate climate change adaptation and mitigation goals into their policy agenda in recent years, including ministries of environment, natural resources, fisheries, agriculture, and transportation.

[1]Peter H.Raven, Linda R. Berg, Environment 4th Edition John Wiley& Sons, Inc 2004, P. 472


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