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楼主: 郭国汀

[群策中国] 中国GDP将超过美国成为头号超级大国?

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 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 00:59:41 | 显示全部楼层
中国和平堀起与近平时代中国外交政策发展趋势
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:00:40 | 显示全部楼层
China in thetwenty-first century will provide an alternative to the United States and willplay the role of a non-hegemonic superpower. With China becoming wealthier andsoon taking over the title of the world’s largest economy, other countries willhave no choice but to turn toward Beijing(Cameron2013:13). maintainedChina’s global trade clout – as of 2013, China is the largest trading partnerfor over 120 countries.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:02:58 | 显示全部楼层
众多西方专家学者及中国通们为何一边倒地对共产党一党专制下的中国经济发展作如此乐观的赞赏?难道中国经济真如其所称赞的那样辉煌!?
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:04:42 | 显示全部楼层
Tensions areintensifying between China and Japan in the East China Sea over Diaoyu Island.Confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea have been two yearsin the running with no end in sight. America's "pivot" to AsiaPacific has confirmed to many Chinese their suspicion of containment by thesuperpower and emboldened China's adversaries in the region to escalatetensions. The most recent incident was China's declaration of an Air DefenseIdentification Zone, which some have called provocative.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:09:08 | 显示全部楼层
Deng's famous dictum of “keeping a low profile” for economicdevelopment. The other was to give the first priority to the relations with the UnitedStates. China's new foreign policy outlook indicates an approach knownas “strivingfor achievement”to engage its neighboring countries and to over time align their interests withChina's rise. Xi specifically stressed friendship and loyalty between China andits neighbors.[1]


[1] Yan Xuetong,Chinas New Foreign Policy Not Conflict But Convergence Of Interests,01/28/2014http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ya ... licy_b_4679425.html



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:10:42 | 显示全部楼层
University of Chicago politicaltheorist John Mearsheimer, in his "China cannot peaceful rise " concluded taht China continues its rise asa great power, military conflicts are probable if not inevitable. for In a disorderly world without a supreme ruler, the theorygoes, no nation can be sure of the intentions of other nations and the only wayof survival is to maximize a nation's own relative strength.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:13:09 | 显示全部楼层
Under Xi, China willbegin to treat friends and enemies differently. For those who are willing toplay a constructive role in China's rise, China will seek ways for them to gaingreater actual benefits from China's development. China will decisively favorthose who side with it with economic benefits and even security protections. Onthe contrary, those who are hostile to China will face much more sustainedpolicies of sanctions and isolation.



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:25:36 | 显示全部楼层
The Xi’s doctrine of diplomatic policynow contains six points. The firstis to establish a sense of identity with the world in a “community of common destiny”. no matter what system it adopts, it is always partof that community rather than being detached from the rest of the world. The second is to express a world dreamwith a “Chinese dream”. all will enjoy peace, development and prosperity. The third is to ensure peace and development with bottom-line thinking. The fourth is to improve China’s imageas valuing profits more than justice with a right approach to morality andinterests. The fifth is to managerelations with the US towards a new model of bigcountry relationship, no confrontation or conflict, mutual respect, and cooperationand win-win. The sixth point is todispel misgivings of neighboring countries with the principles of amity,sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness.[1]


[1]Zhai Kun, The XiJinping Doctrine of Chinese Diplomacy, March 25, 2014 http://www.chinausfocus.com/poli ... -chinese-diplomacy/



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:28:05 | 显示全部楼层
The Chinese system will fail because there is an inherent conflict between public welfare and the government’s desire to retain power. Acemoglu and Robinson argue that China’s phenomenal growth cannot be sustained because the political institutions are authoritarian and extractive. Furthermore, the present economic growth cannot lead to inclusive economic institutions and creative destruction unless fundamental political reforms are carried out in the near future(Schweinberger 2014:170).
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:28:43 | 显示全部楼层
One of the key characteristic ofChinese economic development: namely, the high degree of politization ofeconomic decision-making. state-owned (partially or wholly) companies in Chinaat present make up around eighty percent of the value of the stock market.

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