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楼主: 郭国汀

[群策中国] 中国GDP将超过美国成为头号超级大国?

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 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:30:15 | 显示全部楼层
China is no longer the workbench of the world. Within twenty years, it has become a serious competitor of the German machine-construction industry owing to its breathtaking advances in technology and engineering skills development( Schweinberger 2014:173).
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:47:48 | 显示全部楼层
China's State IntellectualProperty Office (SIPO) handled 526,412 patent applications in 2011, surpassingthe 503,582 received by the US Patent and Trademark Office, according to areport published on 11 December by the World Intellectual Property Organizationin Geneva, Switzerland. This makes SIPO for the first time the world's largestpatent office. [1]





 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:48:20 | 显示全部楼层
Individual Chinese citizens havealso entangled China in numerous conflicts with its neighbors on the high seas,including the incident which led to China's seizureof Scarborough Shoal, a coral reef in the South China Sea that was previouslycontrolled by the Philippines. China seized the reef in 2012 on thepretext of protecting Chinese fishermen who were accosted at Scarborough Shoalby the Philippines.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:49:21 | 显示全部楼层
China’s accomplishments over the past 30 years have been exceptional. The country has had an average growth rate of almost 10 percent. China has lifted over half a billion of its people out of poverty through efforts which, all by themselves, have ensured that the world’s Millennium Development Goal on reducing poverty will be met by 2015. It is a unique development success story (Zoellick 2012:533).
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:50:59 | 显示全部楼层
The fact is that the country’s export- and investment-led growth model that hasbeen so successful for the past 30 years will not work in the decades ahead.China has already achieved upper middle-income status,with approximately $5,000 of income per person(In 2014,Xi declared that it reach $7,000 of income per person). Ifthe country reaches $16,000 by 2030, then China will have an economy equivalentto adding 15 of today’s South Koreas, using market prices(Zoellick 2012:534).

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:51:56 | 显示全部楼层
Will the UnitedStates and China actually square off in a war for resources sometime during thefirst half of the century? The collision over the world’slimited oil reserves does exist(Tanner 2005:230). China quite often designed to meet politicalends at the expense of economic considerations to maintaineconomic growth as a means to achieve social stability.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:52:47 | 显示全部楼层
the recent move tosolicit bids on four newly proposed nuclear power reactors, increased oilimports from its current importers, such as, South Africa, Iran,Oman, Sudan, Angola, Vietnam, Yemen, Indonesia, Russia, Kuwait,with special focus on boosting imports from Central Asia, Russia,and Africa. Additional examples include: the ongoing construction of threelarge liquid natural gas projects along the Chinese coast,plans to establish a strategic petroleum reserve, plans to increase offshoreexploration, and continued interest in the construction of a number of pipelines(Kazak; Russia; Turkmenistan). CNPC has acquired oil concessions from Kazakhstan,Venezuela, Sudan, Iraq, Iran, Peru, and Azerbaijan(Tanner2005:231).

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:54:07 | 显示全部楼层
The longstanding enmity between China and Japan, the policy of theChinese government to incorporate Taiwan,and the rivalry between China and the USAcould each spark a war(Shirk.2007:91).[1]


[1]Susan L. Shirk.2007.China: Fragile superpower. Oxford: OxfordUniversity Press



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 01:54:33 | 显示全部楼层
The political elite are desperateto retain power and to do so pursue policies which encourage the nationalisticimpulses within Chinese culture and politics. Chinacannot become a democracy without the present elite being willing to cede power,and the Chinese Communist Party is not going to do that (Shirk 2007: 92).

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 02:04:42 | 显示全部楼层
To avoid any leadership splitsthe leaders are risk averse and behave cautiously. To prevent large-scale social unrest the economy has to grow by at least7% per annum to create sufficient new jobs to stop unemploymentrising which may lead to unrest. To keep the military happy the budget for thePeople’s Liberation Army increases each year (presently by 10%). there are over200 group protests of one kind or another every day in China, so the leadershipis afraid of any demonstrations, peaceful or not(Shirk 2007:93).

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