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楼主: 郭国汀

[群策中国] 中国GDP将超过美国成为头号超级大国?

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 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 02:07:56 | 显示全部楼层
wide-ranging crackdown on corruption within the Party, but everyone knows this campaign just isn't capable of solving China's deep-rooted culture of corruption. Rather, Xi's anti-corruption drive is merely another publicity stunt aimed at placating widespread antipathy towards the Party, and many analysts have noted that it's also being used to attack Xi's political enemies.
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 02:19:38 | 显示全部楼层
Thisabsence of strategic planning makes China's foreign policy vulnerable to the whims of zealousnationalists and hawkish PLA officers seeking to instigate conflict in order toacquire more power and resources. China is incapable of controlling thenationalist sentiment which has hijackedChina's foreign policy. China's hostile anduncompromising form of nationalism - that is beyondthe ability of China's leaders to control.


 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 12:58:53 | 显示全部楼层
Xi’s wide-ranging crackdown on corruption within the Party, but everyone knows this campaign just isn't capable of solving China's deep-rooted corruption. Rather, Xi's anti-corruption drive is merely another publicity stunt aimed at placating widespread antipathy towards the Party, and many analysts have noted that it's also being used to attack Xi's political enemies. It doesn't have the political strength to make anything more than cosmetic changes to a system that is rotten to the core.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:01:02 | 显示全部楼层
for many Chinese their "China dream" are to get the heck out of China as soon as possible. Speedly rising inequality, pervasive corruption, and the myriad health and environmental pollution, which have fueled protests across the country. infused with aggressive nationalism - has spawned a Chinese foreign policy that is hawkish, unpredictable, and uncontrollable.
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:06:26 | 显示全部楼层
Thisabsence of strategic planning makes China's foreign policy vulnerable to the whims of zealousnationalists and hawkish PLA officers seeking to instigate conflict in order toacquire more power and resources. It alleged that few high racking army officersdivided nearly half barged for military as their award.  China is incapable of controlling thenationalist sentiment which has hijackedChina's foreign policy. China's hostile anduncompromising form of nationalism - that is beyondthe ability of China's leaders to control.


 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:08:39 | 显示全部楼层
China security analyst AndrewScobell suggests that China's military has engaged in "roguish"behavior motivated by a desire to acquire a greater slice of the government'sbudget. examples of such "roguish" behavior include missile testsnear Taiwan in 1995-96; the collision between Chinese and US military aircraftsin 2001; an incident involving a Chinese submarine and a US aircraft carrier in2006; and the unannounced anti-satellite missile test in 2007. such"roguish" actions could indicate that "PLA leaders are goingtheir own way to pursue power and resources.


 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:11:26 | 显示全部楼层
A China that can successfullymake the transition from a middle income to a high-income country will not onlycontinue to provide opportunities and improve lives for hundreds of millions ofits citizens. It could offer an example toother countries – developing and developed – for howeconomic advancement need not be at the expense of social and environmentalperformance, or global responsibility(Zoellick 2012:535). Up to 2014, Chineseworkers salary only occupy 8% of the GDP, USA is 54%, South Korea 45%, German 68%!

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:20:38 | 显示全部楼层
China is in themidst of a middle-income trap, where further high economic growth is likely toslow; economic growth exceeding 10% annually, commonplace during the last threedecades, will be history. A more realistic gross domesticproduct (GDP) annual growth rate of 6% to 8% is likely to be the norm for theChinese economy. Internally, the government-ledcapital investment schemes in infrastructure are slowing down. Second, an inexhaustiblelabor supply coming from rural communities is quickly shrinking. The socialurbanization of this movement is leading to air pollutionand a lower quality of life. Third, a potential real estate bubbleis about to burst. This could lead to shrinkages in the liquidity of a growingelite of upper-income earners, thus creating a potential crisisof confidence. Finally, there isan overcapacity in the industrial sector, whereby ashrinkage of output is unavoidable due to slowing demands for Chinese exportsin Europe and other export destinations. Thus, the industrial sector’scontribution to GDP growth will likely diminish, but a growing service sectorhas yet to manifest competitive advantages(Ajami 2013:179).[1]


[1]Riad Ajami (2013) The Middle-Income Trap:Implications for the Chinese Economy, Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, 14:3,179-181.



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:25:11 | 显示全部楼层
Xi Jinpings three well-accepted foreign policy ideas– the concept of “peaceful rise,” criticism ofhegemonism, and a promise not to negotiate about China's “core nationalinterests.” Xi's language about “corenational interests” does sound tough– “Foreign countries should not expect that we willtrade on our own core interests, not expect that we will eat the bitter fruitsof damaging our country's sovereignty, security, and development benefits.”  Thecore national interests officials have been careful to include only theterritories of Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang in the category, and they have longsaid that they are not up for negotiation. Territories integrety, state security, social stability and order as the core interests of nation is understandable. However, the form of political system is not state but party's interest only.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 13:28:28 | 显示全部楼层
Xi's new "China dream" slogan not only strives to build alarge middle class, but also envisions a "strong China" and a"strong military." To many Chinese, their dream must be run out of Chinaimmigrate to north American or European or Australia and New Zealand. In a societycitizen neither have political freedom nor religion freedom, if people still candream, it must be dream of liberty.  


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