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楼主: 郭国汀

[群策中国] 中国GDP将超过美国成为头号超级大国?

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 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:06:59 | 显示全部楼层
Rarely in history has a single stategrown so quickly in such a number of ways(Lanteigne 2009:8).China’s impact onmodern globalisation has been enormous . Economic growth has hovered between 9and 10% over the past decade, in 2013, the rate reduce to 7.5%. By 2008,  China hold over US$ 1.9 trillion in foreigncurrency reserves. With increase the economic power, China’s diplomatic poweris on the rise (Lanteigne 2009:12).

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:13:08 | 显示全部楼层
Diseases such as Respiratory syndrome(SARS) in 2003, avian influenza in 2008, natural disaster earthquake resulted in more than 100000 casualties in Wenchuan, Sichuan. Serious pollution of air, water, soil, rivers and sea, are making China shift to unsuitable living place on earth. China contains 16 of 20 the most polluted cities in the world, and has surpassed the US to become the largest contributor of carbon and pollution emissions, sandstorms, smog, global warming. Environmental disasters is coming and nobody can escape such disasters for it do not recognize whether rich or poor, power or powerless.
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:20:34 | 显示全部楼层
Majority of Chinese even do not knowthat the boarder hostilities with Russian, have been settled in 2008 June, thelast of the 4300 km border was settled, with 174 km2 of disputed land to bereturned to Chinese sovereignty. [1]Becauseonly English paper reported the news, Jiang and Hu’s regime even dare not let Chinesepeople learn the truth what has happened. During Jiang’s time, China finally losther 1,500,000 squire kilomiter of territory to Russian which are illegally seizeby Russian and Lenin has repeatedly promise return to China without condition. InHu’s time China still is a big loser to Russian concerned with the territory integrity.


[1]Li Xiaokun, ‘ China, Russia Sign Border Afreement’, Chinadaily, 22 July 2008.



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:29:32 | 显示全部楼层
Outline of Chinese foreign policy during Jiang and Hu’stime. Sino-European union relations have been transformed with many EU membersnow seeing Beijing as an alternative pole to the US as well as a promisingmultifaceted trade partner (Lanteigne 2009:14) while regular Sino-AfricanSummits reached it watershed. In 1978 and the end of 1980s, the period ofrapprochement with the west, gradual removed of Maoist ideology from replacedwith a greater pragmatism real politic. Through Restoration of Chinese trade andliberalisation of the country’s markets, withdraw international capital andexpertise to rescue the state caused by the political traumas. After theTiananmen massacre and the retirement of Dang and Jiang, Jiang’s foreign policy priorities promote a stable andproductive set of relationships with China’s periphery to concentrate reformsand preventing the border conflicts. Finally, the time world became muchmore aware of China as a rising political economicand military power, Hu’s foreign policy,rapidly development of cross-regional diplomacy. Chinese diplomacy withdeveloping states have drawn international criticism for the keeping politics and economics secreted approach,with Iran, Myanmar, Sudan and Zimbabwe, and North Korea, develop nuclear weapons using at least partial Chinesetechnology.  Peripheral diplomacy, to create peaceful borders andstronger regional harmony.  Sincethe 1970s, more and more states have switched their diplomatic ties from Taipeito Beijing, especially in the wake of the mainland’s economic growth.  

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:43:26 | 显示全部楼层
Deng Xiaoping’s famous remark “Crossingriver by feeling the stones”, “it does not matter whether cat are white orblack, anyone that can catch the mouse are good cat.” Thus, it become the CCP’sgreat theory of ideology and theory! Jiang Zeming tried his best then has“three representative” which mean the CCP must be the representative ofadvanced science, advanced culture, and advanced production of power, so healso become the great leader! Of course, Hu Jingtao could not leave a empty remark,therefore, he has “concept of scientific development”, “harmony society” and newthree people! Nowadays, Xi Jinping has to have his own, thus, Chinese dream wasborn. All such daily remark even jokes, turn into the greatest theory of the CCP’sleaders, write into constitution, which list longer and longer day after day.

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 15:56:47 | 显示全部楼层
The combination of staggeringinternal challenges, fragile regime, legitimacy and nationalistic sentimentsthat the regime has stoked and now can barely control; make it difficult forBeijing to manage relocations with Japan, Taiwan and the US. “the PRC today isa brittle, highly authoritarian (post-totalitarian dictatorship) regime thatfears its own citizens and can only bends so for the accommodate the demands offoreign government (Shirk 2007: 5).[1]Just like later Qing’s emporee Cixi said, “ I would rather give wealth and fortunateto foreign friendly country, never leave them to our home slaves”! the CCP regimein essence, are same as Cixi, it support international revolution yearly offer morethan 5% of her GDP during Mao’s time, the highest year reach 7% in 1973.  During Jiang and Hu’s time, China release her hugedepts. In Asia, Africa, for million after trillion, while when Guangxi earthquakein 2013, the centre government only offer USD 100000 as financial assistance, educationbudget from 1949 and 2014, never reach 3.5% of GDP, majority of time only 2.5 to2.9. at meantime, military budget reach 5.7% in 2013, plus the cost of internetmaintain stability which over passed the military budget since 2011!  


[1]Susan L.Shirk, China Fragile Superpower: How China’s Internal Politics Could Derailits Peaceful Rise, Oxford University Press. 2007



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 16:35:58 | 显示全部楼层
EdwardFriedman claimed that China is already in the process of transformingAfrica. While the conventional wisdom sees corrupt regimes and weakstate capacity in Africa frittering away Africa’s opportunity to rise byplugging into Chinese dynamism, China is found in this paper already to beexporting entrepreneurial talent to Africa and to be dynamizing the Africaneconomy through East Asian practices. Chinese can bring industryto Africa much as Japan brought it to Southeast Asia in the 1960s and1970s. Africa could therefore be incorporated into Asian economicdynamism.[1]Any story has two side, do not forget the dark side which always covered by powerand rotten corrupt political system, there is no such thing as fairness and justiceunder political rotten system, such as the CCP regime, then how can author has sucha high praise of the CCP regime’s operation.  


[1] Edward Friedman,HowEconomic Superpower China Could Transform Africa, J OF CHIN POLIT SCI (2009) 14:120.



 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 16:43:15 | 显示全部楼层
those governments will do best which have the capacity for effectiveness and which have commodities to export, as long as the society is not mobilizable by demagogues using xenophobic appeals to keep Chinese out and as long as the government largely ignores Chinese human rights abuses(Friedman 2009:2). In the long run, only liberal constitutional democratic government can successful to handle economic issues. Despite the CCP regime use national capitalism to develop her economy seems a great achievement, the human rights abuses will destroy all the achievement provide there is no improve rights of people. For demand justice and fairness is the fundamental values of any nation and any ethics. When there is no way to negotiation or through agreement to resolve disputes, it always will turn into violence and cause social disorder even bloody, terrorism is a kind of product of unfairness and injustice of political, economic and social system.  
 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 17:08:47 | 显示全部楼层
In many ways, Chinahas done worse than Russia. China’s post-Mao gradual marketization,Deng’s “ let some of people get rich first”,utilizing a two-tierprice system,and authority power exchange benefits with business men and sellvarious import license and quato of export,  unleashed official corruptionbased on renting access to the cheap government price tier to get wealthy byselling on the market-oriented tier. The worst is sell out state own property inextremely low price to those who bribe authority. This misguided policy, notpart of East Asian development prescriptions, resulted in a plunderof property by officialdom which exceeded what theoligarchs in Russia did. China, consequently, is far more unequal than is Russia(Friedman 7).

 楼主| 发表于 8/11/2014 17:14:25 | 显示全部楼层
Given its predatorypractices, some analysts contend that what made China unique was that it cheated. Underthe CCP regime, there are no any political freedom, or basic human rights. The CCPhas forbidden workers to organize independent unionsto bargain over conditions and pay, not allow free media, neither permit independentjudicial. It subsidized exports. It ignored safety andenvironmental protections. It did not supply itspeople a social safety net. It stoleintellectual property and ignored international rules, copyrights,and patents. It forced foreign businessmen to turn over technology toChinese counterparts. If China is a model of anything, in this perspective, itis of a race to the bottom which will make the poor yet poorer(Friedman 7)[1].a crash could produce a destabilizing explosion of urban anger against the highlycorrupt and extremely selfish regime.


[1] For an introduction to cheating and Chineseeconomic growth, see Glenny , M. 2006. McMafia. New York: Knopf.Chapter 4.



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